[bvinc]

I don’t remember NYT. But I recall the other major poll site Real Clear Politics had an election map with a percentage chance for each state and they had Hillary at 99%.

Their mistake was that they treated each state as an independent event. Treating each state as a separate biased coin toss leads you to put Hillary at 99%.

Nate knew that these are not independent events and if republicans are being under polled in one state, it is more likely they’re being under polled in all of the states.