[marlor]

I’m sure the Yuan will increase somewhat as a reserve currency, but I’m skeptical it will become dominant. China has systemic issues at the moment, with a working-age population that peaked some time ago and a property market that is perpetually on the verge of implosion.

There are mounting pressures in domestic consumers, and an increasing move towards “dual circulation” (with a focus on the domestic part of that duality). Then there’s the risk of a miscalculation in the East China or South China seas.

Given that CNY trades in a tight, centrally-managed range against the USD (it’s almost always between 6-7 CNY to the dollar, and only briefly traded outside that during the pandemic), I’m not sure there’s a big incentive to use CNY as a hedge against USD.