[nugget]

Demographics are destiny. America can probably attract and assimilate enough immigrants to be OK. That has always been and continues to be America’s superpower. As global birth rates continue to plummet, most of the rest of the world seems headed for a hard landing.

[zeedude]

The West has been importing its population for decades, full gas since 1965. Not only is this strategy failing, it is a significant contributor to the West’s current decline. The core problem is more centered on the dynamics of the 20th century that led to mass immigration.

[maerF0x0]

> it is a significant contributor to the West’s current decline.

Can you explain this further please?

[starkd]

But new immigrants will need a vibrant economy they can assimilate into and pay taxes. If not, we will just be swamped and become another shithole country. That helps no one.

[cpursley]

There's several places poised for good demographic growth. Egypt, parts of Africa, Mexico. Not China, most of Europe. USA should be fine as long as the quality of the human capital stays high (education, law and order, etc).

[justrealist]

Fleetingly few places that have both the demographics and the institutional stability to capitalize on demographic growth though.

Maybe a couple places in Latin America, but those countries have a habit of electing the wrong autocrat and utterly collapsing.

[dirtyid]

Growth =/= divident. Demographics is more than just pyramid, have to consider workforce / productive composition and actual ability to realize potential, especially when comparing polities with order(s) of magnitude difference in population and human capita catchup/potential.

> Not China

Hence especially China.

Scale of PRC moving workforce from currently 25% skilled to 70-85% over (developed economy level) next few generation even with net population decline is roughly creating 3-5 new Japans, or another 1-1.5 US worth of high productive divident. Within a few generations, through system largely with good track record ability to move up skill/value chain. Most other developing countries have been spinning wheels for too long to take face value postive prognosis seriously. But PRC doing so at PRC scale is special case, no other country is structurally able to replicate this feat, because they lack scale (US even with immigration), or coordination (India on other in same pop class but systemically incapable and not trending towards being so).

[midoridensha]

Afghanistan is growing rapidly. It basically doubled its population in the last 20-something years. It'll be a world leader very soon....

[twelve40]

Mexico is below replacement, that's the opposite of good demographic growth

[dirtyid]

Economically OK, but expect more social fissures between cultures and generations, especially when welfare and upward mobility will diminish with more bodies.