> El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.
From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)[2]:
> El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
> El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.
As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than usual.
You failed to add the two most important things on the subject about its impact worldwide
1) Certain regions, particularly those riding the equatorial line that also have wet seasons will experience (rather, are experiencing right now) extreme wet seasons with heavy flooding , for example in south america, such as Peru, Brazil and COlombia. The wet season causes an extreme cascading effect in those societies by the spike in cases of water-related (mosquito larvae) disease like dengue, cholera and malaria.
2) The same countries will experience drought in the normally quieter, "winter" season. That wrecks agricultural yield. Watch the price of bananas and similar water-intensive perennials , at your local supermarket early next year. For countries near major river flows (amazon in particular) that are not diversified in power sources and heavily dependant in hydro for power , they can get really in trouble and experience brownouts further damaging their GDP. This is rarer since most countries learn their lesson after the 1-brownout in a decade..but you never know.
What causes El Niño to happen every few years? What mechanism drives the phenomenon? I was thinking maybe sun spots, but sun spots have 11 year cycles on average, so I don't think it's the cause. Why doesn't El Niño happen every year, like hurricanes?
What El Niño means depends wildly on where you live.
In California, particularly Southern California, an El Niño winter is more likely wetter than usual. The 1997-1998 winter comes to mind.
These are all statistical predictions based on previous years, and any individual year can vary wildly from average. In addition, climate change makes historical data increasingly irrelevant. So, take any forecast of the weather six months into the future with a grain of salt!
I first moved to San Francisco in early 1997. I was absolutely flabbergasted at the amount of rain we got that winter. It just never stopped raining. For months. My distant memory of it was that it started raining just before Thanksgiving (when I had a cousin visit, which is why I remember) and then just didn't stop until like May of 1998. I just looked it up: 18 days of rain in November, 10 in December, 22 in January, 20 in February, 14 in March, 10 in April and 14 in May. Nice to know my 25 year old memory wasn't that bad.
I went to Tahoe for the first time that winter and the snowpack was absolutely absurd. Like 20 feet. The ski area parking lot I went to had a wall of snow carved out next to the cars. I have a sideways panoramic photo taken of myself next to it to remember it by.
Here in Northern California it means we've had a lot more rain, and it's been much cooler than usual as well as getting snow to a much lower level than usual (around 800 feet). Normally it would have already been 100 or so for a month already. however, today is first day to really hit 90 and we just had some rain last week. Honestly, I'm hoping it means we have a more mild & wet summer but that I'm not sure of. Anything other than the fires would be nice though.
The unfortunate side effect of El Niño is to further destabilize the marine environment off shore.
This isn’t all El Niño, we lost the sunflower starfish which preyed on urchins and kept them in check to a disease, but the warm surface waters are another bad situation on top of low kelp cover, urchins out of control, no predators for the urchins, etc. if we don’t have kelp forests off shore, the environment will be totally different and many species that depend on the kelp will disappear.
"El Niño usually brings a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and more hurricane activity in the Pacific, while La Niña does the opposite — a dynamic that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has compared to a seesaw.
El Niño's warmer waters can also push the Pacific jet stream south. When that happens, the NOAA says, "areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.""
* Winter-Spring (June-November): Dryer than usual in eastern Australia, warmer than usual in southern Australia
* Summer-Autumn (December-May): Warmer than usual with average rainfall in eastern Australia, dryer conditions in Cape York and Tasmania, and wetter conditions in the southern part of Western Australia
Inevitable, but disappointing of course - I had hoped we'd have something closer to a 5y cycle, as the previous couple of dry cycles were much longer than this most recent wet(ish) one.
I'm 150km inland, just north of Sydney AU latitude (150E, 33S).
The very averaged annual rainfall in our area is 600mm (about the same as London, about half of Sydney).
In 2021 we had 910mm, and 2022 we had 966mm. So far this year we've had 192mm - and given January is our wettest period, that's way under both long-term average and recent trend.
It's worth noting that the Americans here will likely experience wetter than normal conditions (region dependent). I'm just happy Australia might have a year without so much rain. Might be a bad fire season in the end of the year though.
> National forecasters said on Thursday that the climate pattern system, known for bringing record rainfall in South America, more winter storms in the U.S West and South, and droughts in southern Asia, Indonesia and Australia, is expected to make its official return within a few months and has a strong chance of lasting the rest of the year.
>
> El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.
In Los Angeles, anyway, where as you may know, it "never rains", there's been what residents can only describe comparatively as "non-stop rain" since the new year.
Where it should be regularly mid-70s by this time of year, it's stayed around high-50s since January.
Preparing for my trip to London, I was planning for a wetter and colder climate than I'm accustomed to. It turns out it's actually nicer weather in London than in LA right now.
>The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter.
I was confused by the post's title but it appears El Nino is 90% likely to increase temperatures this year from May - Winter. I don't know how different this is from a normal El Nino, nor do I know if 90% is higher or lower than average.
thomascgalvin|2 years ago
> El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.
From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)[2]:
> El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
> El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.
As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than usual.
[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/
[2]https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
IG_Semmelweiss|2 years ago
1) Certain regions, particularly those riding the equatorial line that also have wet seasons will experience (rather, are experiencing right now) extreme wet seasons with heavy flooding , for example in south america, such as Peru, Brazil and COlombia. The wet season causes an extreme cascading effect in those societies by the spike in cases of water-related (mosquito larvae) disease like dengue, cholera and malaria.
2) The same countries will experience drought in the normally quieter, "winter" season. That wrecks agricultural yield. Watch the price of bananas and similar water-intensive perennials , at your local supermarket early next year. For countries near major river flows (amazon in particular) that are not diversified in power sources and heavily dependant in hydro for power , they can get really in trouble and experience brownouts further damaging their GDP. This is rarer since most countries learn their lesson after the 1-brownout in a decade..but you never know.
nomel|2 years ago
For example, the last strong one was 2015-2016.
GalenErso|2 years ago
m3kw9|2 years ago
samcheng|2 years ago
In California, particularly Southern California, an El Niño winter is more likely wetter than usual. The 1997-1998 winter comes to mind.
These are all statistical predictions based on previous years, and any individual year can vary wildly from average. In addition, climate change makes historical data increasingly irrelevant. So, take any forecast of the weather six months into the future with a grain of salt!
russellbeattie|2 years ago
I went to Tahoe for the first time that winter and the snowpack was absolutely absurd. Like 20 feet. The ski area parking lot I went to had a wall of snow carved out next to the cars. I have a sideways panoramic photo taken of myself next to it to remember it by.
whynotkeithberg|2 years ago
MarkMarine|2 years ago
This isn’t all El Niño, we lost the sunflower starfish which preyed on urchins and kept them in check to a disease, but the warm surface waters are another bad situation on top of low kelp cover, urchins out of control, no predators for the urchins, etc. if we don’t have kelp forests off shore, the environment will be totally different and many species that depend on the kelp will disappear.
nomel|2 years ago
[1] "Neutral" brought the atmospheric rivers: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/march-2023-enso-...
[2] Blue Nina, red nino: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitorin...
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRU1XYfjVF4
rootw0rm|2 years ago
rufus_foreman|2 years ago
El Niño's warmer waters can also push the Pacific jet stream south. When that happens, the NOAA says, "areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.""
-- https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1173734262/el-nino-2023-weath...
mastazi|2 years ago
* Winter-Spring (June-November): Dryer than usual in eastern Australia, warmer than usual in southern Australia
* Summer-Autumn (December-May): Warmer than usual with average rainfall in eastern Australia, dryer conditions in Cape York and Tasmania, and wetter conditions in the southern part of Western Australia
[1] http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean
PS BOM agrees with NOAA that El Niño is coming http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=ENSO-Outloo...
Jedd|2 years ago
I'm 150km inland, just north of Sydney AU latitude (150E, 33S).
The very averaged annual rainfall in our area is 600mm (about the same as London, about half of Sydney).
In 2021 we had 910mm, and 2022 we had 966mm. So far this year we've had 192mm - and given January is our wettest period, that's way under both long-term average and recent trend.
nabogh|2 years ago
crayboff|2 years ago
From: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/el-nino-returns-2023/
ttymck|2 years ago
Where it should be regularly mid-70s by this time of year, it's stayed around high-50s since January.
Preparing for my trip to London, I was planning for a wetter and colder climate than I'm accustomed to. It turns out it's actually nicer weather in London than in LA right now.
yamazakiwi|2 years ago
I was confused by the post's title but it appears El Nino is 90% likely to increase temperatures this year from May - Winter. I don't know how different this is from a normal El Nino, nor do I know if 90% is higher or lower than average.
ren_engineer|2 years ago
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mbgerring|2 years ago
high_pathetic|2 years ago
nluken|2 years ago