[fauxpause_]

Russia arresting the Kinzhal developers for treason (read: failure) tells you all you need to know.

Note also that they purposefully forbid videos of air defenses to avoid showing where air defenses are.

At least one Kinzhal was confirmed shot down earlier before the wave of 6 or so.

[DiogenesKynikos]

Another view would say that the explosion in the video, where the air-defense battery appeared to be, demonstrates that the claim about all Kinzhals being intercepted was not truthful. The initial claim was that the Patriot battery was undamaged, but later it was admitted that the battery was at least partially damaged. It seems that the full truth is not being told, possibly by both sides.

> Note also that they purposefully forbid videos of air defenses to avoid showing where air defenses are.

This has not prevented videos from leaking, as in this case.

> At least one Kinzhal was confirmed shot down earlier before the wave of 6 or so.

Independently confirmed, or claimed? This gets to my initial point, that one should be extremely skeptical about unverifiable claims made by both sides.

[ceejayoz]

> Another view would say that the explosion in the video, where the air-defense battery appeared to be, demonstrates that the claim about all Kinzhals being intercepted was not truthful.

This doesn't conclusively demonstrate that; an intercepted missile or drone can still easily go kaboom when the pieces hit the ground. The footage has a building between the explosion and the camera.

> Independently confirmed, or claimed?

There's at least photos of an apparently-downed Khinzal. There are no photos yet of a destroyed Patriot.

[dralley]

The ground explosions were caused by Kalibr cruise missiles targeting the airport terminal nearby to where it appears (from satellite imagery) that the Patriots were stationed. It's perfectly possible that A) all Kinzhal's were indeed intercepted and B) the Patriot battery was indirectly damaged by a nearby explosion but was not even necessarily the target of the missile in question.

It can be very difficult for radars to track objects coming in from a high angle of attack and low angle of attack simultaneously, so IMO the failure to intercept makes more sense from that perspective as well.

[fauxpause_]

Shrug. The Kremlin loudly arresting the Kinzhal developers for treason after the Kinzhals get shot down suggests a clear narrative to me about who is telling the truth.

The best case you can make for Russia is that the Kinzhal developers actually did commit treason but in a way that was unrelated to the Kinzhal missiles not being effective which is… laughable