Of course every one has been wrong. If they were right, you wouldn't be here talking about it. It shouldn't be surprising that everyone has been wrong before
1) Throughout history many people have predicted the world would soon end, and the world did not in fact end.
2) Throughout history no one predicted the world would soon end, and the world did not in fact end.
The fact that the real world is aligned with scenario 1 is more an indication that there exists a pervasive human cognitive bias to think that the world is going to end, which occasionally manifests itself in the right circumstances (apocalypticism).
That argument is still invalid because in scenario 2 we would not be having this discussion. No conclusions can be drawn from such past discourse about the likelihood of definite and complete extinction.
Not that, I hope, anyone expected a strong argument to be had there. It seems reasonably certain to me that humanity will go extinct one way or another eventually. That is also not a good argument in this situation.
goolulusaurs|2 years ago
1) Throughout history many people have predicted the world would soon end, and the world did not in fact end.
2) Throughout history no one predicted the world would soon end, and the world did not in fact end.
The fact that the real world is aligned with scenario 1 is more an indication that there exists a pervasive human cognitive bias to think that the world is going to end, which occasionally manifests itself in the right circumstances (apocalypticism).
staunton|2 years ago
Not that, I hope, anyone expected a strong argument to be had there. It seems reasonably certain to me that humanity will go extinct one way or another eventually. That is also not a good argument in this situation.