[newuser94303]

I think that Globalization has increased the costs of war. You don't want to attack your suppliers. I also think that China is probably a paper tiger on offense but they are trying not to look like an easy target on defense. Most of their recent battles have been fist fights in the Himalayas.

Deglobalization is an attempt to make war feasible because some strong countries feel like they are losing economic war and want to fall back on real war.

[rossdavidh]

France and Germany had a lot of trade in 1913. Russia and Ukraine had a lot of trade in 2013. Every civil war ever fought, was between sides that did a lot of "trade". The Opium War (no small conflict) was fought over trade policy. The U.S.A. and Canada/UK did a lot of trade prior to the War of 1812. Napoleon's invasion of Russia was done despite the fact that the two sides had a lot of trade. Trade has never been a very reliable deterrent to war.

To the extent that there is any relationship, it is that countries sometimes try to avoid depending on trade with someone they may end up at war with soon; the causality works the opposite way.

[hirvi74]

I did not know any of this, but rationally thinking it makes sense.

No need to trade any goods if said goods can be just be taken (assuming one's side wins).

[marianatom]

here's the thing, humanity got lucky. there was a nonzero chance that china and the dictatorships could have triumphed. if China didn't botch the chance to overtake US in 2008 with a capable dictator. if China got its hands on many advanced US military technologies. if Russia didn't botch the Ukraine invasion. if covid didn't have a vaccine, except one that China developed.

I'm sure most of us are aware of the gulags that China ran in 2022, in the most prosperous city like Shanghai, with welded doors, lack of food, arbitrary killing of pets, moving their own citizens against their wills to camps or cells with no running water and unsanitary conditions. with cries in tall buildings from families in the middle of night for food. If. you haven't seen these things, go watch it online. Imagine if somehow China succeeded, and that's most of humanity's fate.

[newuser94303]

I don't think that China has any interest in conquering the rest of World. They just want to be rich. They are stealing IP and spying. The fact that the US needs to use military force is a failure of policy.

Violence is the last resort of the incompetent.

I think that China is pulling on the US what the US did to the Soviet Union. The US bankrupted the Soviet Union with an arms race. China is doing it much more economically by spending 1/3 of the US. This is money that the US could be using to build a high speed rail network or educating its citizens.

[throwaway6734]

It's not just luck though. The American system is better than both the Chinese and Russian ones.

[wazer5]

Wow you should visit China though, it's great. I feel for those who don't get to experience the benefits of globalization.