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riizade | 2 years ago

This particular question doesn't seem like a fallacy to me.

I, like most people intuitively answered b). Given the explanation on the Wikipedia page I went "oh, of course, yeah", but then I thought about why I'd answer b) given that I'm fairly familiar with basic probability.

If you give me two options and ask me to pick between them, my brain is usually going to assume it's not a trivially true problem.

Language needs context for any sense to be made of it.

As a result of the above, reading the question, the intuitive reading makes the answer choices

a) Linda is a bank teller (implicitly, a bank teller NOT active in the feminist movement)

b) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

This question is one of language, context, and interpretation, not of people failing to understand basic probability.

I suspect that if you prime people to excise interpretation of the question by presenting it as the following, the majority of people would guess correctly:

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"Consider the following two statements:

1) Linda is a Bank Teller

2) Linda is active in the feminist movement

Which is more likely?

a) 1

b) 1 ^ 2"

discuss

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