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Apartment rent growth is declining, shifting the market to the tenant’s favor

40 points| lxm | 2 years ago |wsj.com | reply

89 comments

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[+] hnburnsy|2 years ago|reply
[+] ppeetteerr|2 years ago|reply
Having lived in Boston, I can say that the city is way overpriced. You may argue that rent is in line with what people are willing to pay for it and that may be true. However, the city is failing its residents who have no protection against unreasonable increases (due to a state law) and new development is nowhere near strong enough. At least in cities like SF, Honolulu, and NYC you trade affordability for hire wages, natural beauty, and nightlife. Boston is nothing special in comparison.
[+] pcurve|2 years ago|reply
https://archive.is/y28IG

I've been looking for a decent 1BR in Manhattan.

For something clean and decent, the floor is $4,500.

The 40x rent annual income requirement by many landlords, one needs to be making $180,000.

sigh.

[+] jrockway|2 years ago|reply
Come live in Brooklyn Heights. You can be in Manhattan in 5 minutes. I just moved out of a rent stabilized apartment that was $2450 a month for 11 years. There are many similar apartments and they can't raise the rent to "market rate" without making major improvements.
[+] quantpsychds|2 years ago|reply
Cheaper rentals are often not posted online because of the time and cost required. Irrespective of that, plenty of Manhattan 1 bedrooms are well below $4,500, including this one in a building with a 24-hour concierge, air conditioning, stainless steel appliances, and in-unit laundry:

https://www.relatedrentals.com/apartment-rentals/new-york-ci... ($4,150)

[+] usaar333|2 years ago|reply
Manhattan is some of the most expensive housing in the US. It's seeing significant pressure from relocations from other places (e.g. many San Franciscans have moved there)
[+] throwawaysleep|2 years ago|reply
Why would you live in NY without an income like that?
[+] pcthrowaway|2 years ago|reply
Could someone please forward the memo to Vancouver? https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/vancouver-bc
[+] ttul|2 years ago|reply
Just wait. In 2025, all the five year terms for those ultra cheap pandemic mortgages will reset.
[+] mitthrowaway2|2 years ago|reply
Perhaps unlike in the US, Canadian renters are still quite far from getting the upper hand. Canadian rent gains are what you'd expect amidst rising mortgage rates and stable housing prices.

US rents slowing suggest to me that US housing prices might fall.

[+] irrational|2 years ago|reply
I recently learned that some people I know who lived an what are pretty much the worst apartments in our area are paying more in rent each month than my mortgage payment for a 4k sq ft home on an acre. I haven’t looked into how much it is to rent a decent apartment in the area, but it must be double my mortgage.
[+] mupuff1234|2 years ago|reply
Student loan payments are set to resume later in the year which might further reduce rent pressure.

(I assume that a lot of the people with student debt are renters)

[+] ausbah|2 years ago|reply
>A year-long drop in rent would be a potential problem for the many investors who took out large loans to buy buildings where they thought they would be able to keep raising rents.

a healthy economy would disincentivize this sort of behavior

[+] sergiotapia|2 years ago|reply
I wish the government would do more to control this terrible situation. If you can't afford a home with a 40 hour job, something is sick in this country. Even an apartment is beyond reach.

Blackrock and Vanguard are blights on this planet.

[+] dehrmann|2 years ago|reply
> Blackrock and Vanguard are blights on this planet.

Corporate landlords weren't the ones saying "you can't build here because it ruins the neighborhood's 'character.'"

[+] hnburnsy|2 years ago|reply
What is the recent hit on Vanguard I have seen going around? Aren't they mostly investing in indexs which would necessitate blindly buying stock in companies and of course they do it on a massive scale due to their size? Is Vanguard in some way encouraging companies to do evil things?
[+] nancyhn|2 years ago|reply
Completely agree about Blackrock and Vanguard. But didn't the government create this situation by making it hard to build, thus keeping supply down? While at the same time near 0 interest rates to boost demand. While at the same time inflating the supply of money.
[+] rcpt|2 years ago|reply
1031 exchange

Capital gains exemption

Mortgage interest deduction

30 year fixed rate mortgages

Depreciation deduction

Opportunity zones

The list seems to go on forever. The government uses tax cuts to juice real estate investment at everyone else's expense.

[+] davidw|2 years ago|reply
Big investors are not helping the housing market. But after years of telling people that 'housing is a great investment' and enacting all kinds of policies to jack up prices... are we surprised they piled in?

They're kind of scapegoats though: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/housing-cr...

They even come right out and say this stuff in their SEC filings, that if markets stop being supply constrained it'll negatively impact their investments.

[+] nomel|2 years ago|reply
> If you can't afford a home with a 40 hour job

I think this has always been the difference between a "job" and a "career". My first full time job was making pizzas. I worked 40 hours a week, dropping sauce and toppings onto squished bread. Nobody would have been able to afford a pizza if I would have been able to afford a home, in my state.

[+] mensetmanusman|2 years ago|reply
The only thing America could do is attempt to fund the growth of new cities are invest majorly in second tier cities to support competition.
[+] throwawaysleep|2 years ago|reply
> If you can't afford a home with a 40 hour job, something is sick in this country.

I don't think this has ever really been true with any inclusive definition (white men used to, but nobody else). I would be curious where in the world that does not have a declining population that it is true.

This article suggests that there has been a small decline in home buying age, but it is not a big one.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/katherinehamilton/2023/04/21/ge...

[+] yalogin|2 years ago|reply
I don't understand how. The mortgage rates are high, so many people who would otherwise have bought a home are not jumping in. So rents will go up. I have seen this happen too
[+] usaar333|2 years ago|reply
Why would that affect anything? Reduced demand for house purchases should result in higher supply for rental housing as owners rent it out instead of sell.
[+] debaserab2|2 years ago|reply
Demand isn’t as reduced as you might think - mortgage rates are trending a couple points under fed rates (I’m not exactly sure how but as someone who just purchased a house I can tell you that’s what I’m seeing). The house we bought we bid on it’s first day on the market - it had 4 other offers and ours only won because we went well over the asking price.

This is just a Midwest city suburb too, so it’s not a market like SF or anything like that.