> Does it really matter what status folks come over with?
Yes, because it also matters if we're talking about residencies (shelter) or residents (people).
Numbers are arbitrary to keep things simple:
start, 100 population, 40 residencies.
2018: Add 10, of which 2 are temp
2019: Add 10, of which 9 are temp
Assume no population losses. What's your current (2019) population? It COULD be 120, but not necessarily. We know it's at least 109 (100+8+1 permanent) so lets look at what happened to the 11 temps specifically.
Keep in mind temporarily granted residency typically needs to be renewed yearly if not more frequently. If one is in country for Jan-Apr and a second in July-November, then you had a net population gain of 0, a gross gain of 2, and a median gain of 1, and could have required 1 or 2 residences to accommodate them. 0 - 2 technically but lets assume we're doing our best to shelter people.
Then the question is, until you know what the 2019's 9 temp residents are going to do, you can't really call them a net gain for the purposes of talking trends of population. You can however use them when talking housing supply, as regardless of how long they're staying, they will be there at SOME point, and while there, yeah, they need a place to stay.
TL;DR: For this threads context, probably better to think of temps as "pending" residents.
Well it doesn't matter for this year, but it makes for a very different trajectory - there's no reasonable way that we net +600k temporary residents every year.
Zandikar|2 years ago
Yes, because it also matters if we're talking about residencies (shelter) or residents (people).
Numbers are arbitrary to keep things simple:
start, 100 population, 40 residencies.
2018: Add 10, of which 2 are temp
2019: Add 10, of which 9 are temp
Assume no population losses. What's your current (2019) population? It COULD be 120, but not necessarily. We know it's at least 109 (100+8+1 permanent) so lets look at what happened to the 11 temps specifically.
Keep in mind temporarily granted residency typically needs to be renewed yearly if not more frequently. If one is in country for Jan-Apr and a second in July-November, then you had a net population gain of 0, a gross gain of 2, and a median gain of 1, and could have required 1 or 2 residences to accommodate them. 0 - 2 technically but lets assume we're doing our best to shelter people.
Then the question is, until you know what the 2019's 9 temp residents are going to do, you can't really call them a net gain for the purposes of talking trends of population. You can however use them when talking housing supply, as regardless of how long they're staying, they will be there at SOME point, and while there, yeah, they need a place to stay.
TL;DR: For this threads context, probably better to think of temps as "pending" residents.
Marsymars|2 years ago