Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

[Lewton]

@dang anything mentioning Wagner group is being flagged off the main page, I could see why some people would react that way when there’s a 20 articles shared about the same thing in an hour, but it’s a bit disturbing that there’s currently zero articles on the front page about this

[marak830]

There is a more and zero chance that those flags are not from general user accounts. Also @danf doesn't actually taf him from what I have read, there is an option at the bottom of the page(apparently, I've never used it XD)

Edit:

mailto:[e-mail]

Is the link at the bottom.

[sph]

Quit using HN for general news. Go to your favourite news website, they all have a live section about this unfolding event.

I could not care less what software engineers have to say on the matter.

[bitcharmer]

The main page is heavily curated by dang and only features what he likes. For actual popular content I just go to /active

[dagaci]

This like AOE2, where an enemy quietly cuts through the huge forest and the enemy suddenly appears in your base when most of your army is at the front. Your front is wrecked if you run back, and your game is wrecked if you don’t.

[brutusborn]

Does anyone have sources for this stuff?

I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?

[shusaku]

The Eastern Border podcast has been my go to for awhile: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/prigozhin-crisis/id107...

The fog of war over Ukraine does continue to frustrate. You really wish there was live, perfect info sources to keep you in the know, but even ten years from now there are sure to be questions.

Edit: just got through the most recent episode and want to warn that it’s a bit crazy conspiratorial, but interesting…

[diimdeep]

Read sources. Use translation services like (google translate or yandex translate) to read official Telegram channels [1][2][3]

[1] MOD https://t.me/mod_russia https://t.me/mod_russia_en

[2] Wagner https://t.me/orchestra_w

[3] Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova

[jussij]

There are plenty of youtube videos showing Wagner forces control the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. They can't all be fake.

[JumpCrisscross]

Phillips O’Brien has been writing presciently [1].

[1] https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien

[vernon99]

https://t.me/milinfolive

Here’s a pretty good source of almost realtime updates, one of the large pro-war Tg channels. If you are on paid Telegram membership, I think it allows to translate all content.

Not a fan of such media, but I’m from Rostov area so had to subscribe today to stay tuned.

[TheAlchemist]

There was some doubt at the beginning, but now that Putin made a speech on national TV, I think there are no more doubts.

[hutzlibu]

It definitely is real, that the head of Wagner, which acted as Putins man of brute shadow force - is now an enemy of Putin. This was coming since a while, since Prigoshin stepped over the line many times and he refused the ultimatum by the Russian Ministry of Defence, to put Wagner Forces tightly under MoD control. And now things are escalating.

Everything else is filled with deepfakes, old footage and co

But Wagner forces are around 25 000. It is not clear how loyal the bulk of them are towards Prigoshin personally (I have my doubts) but many russian russians share the hate for the MoD.

And there is solid evidence, that they control some area.

[watwut]

Putin made speech in national TV.

[WeylandYutani]

Funny thing is that there were Western journalists in Beijing 1989. The CCP never arrested a non Chinese journalist.

Putin doesn't care about diplomatic relations and almost every reputable media has fled the country.

[logicchains]

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

[danpalmer]

It’s not a coup it’s a “special paramilitary operation”.

[sharikous]

They are still hundreds of miles away from Moscow. In a textbook coup you seize centers of power and media stations as fast as you can but this attempt is on the slow side (certainly the physical size of Russia is helping too).

For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things.

I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.

[LeoPanthera]

"So far this is not a coup, as there has been no bid to seize power from the government."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880

[cwillu]

If I understood correctly, the leader was (originally?) claiming to be attacking an element in the military leadership he felt was responsible for a major friendly fire incident. It appears things have progressed from there, and it's possible or even likely that a coup is and always was the intent, but it's not _certain_.

[davidguetta]

The way i see a coup is usually people are in the capital. Here it's the equivalent distance of austria from Paris so there's just no "coup" at all, it's at best a "publicized attempt to stage a coup"...

[krona]

Because its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.

[rixrax]

This. Especially now that after Putins speech/plea on national TV[0] for the army to put a stop on the rebellion, Wagner in telegram appears to have stated: “Putin made the wrong choice. ... Soon we will have a new president".[1]

[0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 [1] https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725113220832706...

[ZiiS]

Because it depends who wins.

[watwut]

He explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin.

It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.

[dave4420]

Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself.

This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.

[TheLoafOfBread]

If January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.

[rpadovani]

I am curious on how this will reflect on the Ukraine invasion: as far as I understand, Wagner was a huge source of soldiers on the front lines.

I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?

[rwmj]

Surely at least part of the regular Russian army will have to be pulled back to defend Moscow.

[TekMol]

What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions?

Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.

[shusaku]

Metaculus has regime change at 16% right now: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-re...

[55555]

The people who have legitimate inside information are billionaires and I doubt the market would be that deep. And it's a genuine coup, so the outcome is fundamentally unknowable. But yeah, historically prediction markets are great for stuff like this.

[PartiallyTyped]

As of 11:05 cest, 2023-06-24, manifold thinks Russia will curb wagner group, and reaching moscow is at 10%. It id considered a serious attempt (95%). Expect a civil war by July 14 (70%).

[stavros]

This sounds like a "length of the emperor's nose" situation.

[foverzar]

Came here to ask the same question.

[tibbydudeza]

They are in Voronezh now on their way to capture local airfield - regular Russian units backfilled with conscripts (the good ones were all decimated in Ukraine) won't take on Wagner troops on the ground.

Air power will be the key.

[topspin]

Multiple videos from apartment dwellers in Voronezh of a KH-52 destroying a tank farm. Either Wagner was fueling up there or the Russian military is trying to deny fuel to Wagner, or both.

[oneshtein]

Quote:

A modern Russian meme is "to bomb Voronezh". A typical joke went like: "Obama ordered new sanctions on Russia; Putin retaliated by bombing Voronezh". Voronezh, a quaint provincial town south off Moscow, is unremarkable by itself, an Anytown, Russia. Bombing Voronezh is a hyperbola describing the favorite game of Russian ruler, - to punish his citizens for his own mistakes. T

[consumer451]

Ed Nash is a military analyst who has provided factual information in the past. This video includes a translated statement from the leader of Wagner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIY3OfSU1VY

Here is a Russian anti-war streamer. This is a much longer and less formal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIn41Gl6pVU

[rixrax]

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

[ilyt]

While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta, I don't think they are that stupid, there is no way to explain that to public in favourable way to whichever side is left standing

[timeon]

Point of nukes is deterring other country. If your opponent is not country than there is little use for nukes because there is no target. That is why terrorism was such big topic for US/Russia for last two decades.

[dagaci]

It might be strange to say, but Putin is not an absolute dictator. He could not order the use of nuclear weapons on a whim, and have that obeyed throughout the chain. The Russian system will be much more sophisticated than that. https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-the-fine-print-russias-...

[PartiallyTyped]

Seems unlikely tbh, he will turn into a martyr, and irradiation of NATO countries will trigger A5.

[mynameishere]

They are more likely to nuke the people backing Prigozhin rather than anything in Russia itself.

[autoexec]

Would the new regime resort to the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or anyone else?

As unpredictable and irrational as he's become, there's some comfort in Putin's track record of staying off the button. I really hope these events don't cause him to start getting YOLOy

[simion314]

There is no reason. How nukes benefit Putin?

only if maybe Russians will interpret this as super matcho/alpha , to sacrifice entire cities including their future to cleanup your own shit.

[pc_edwin]

I've had the exact thought, it looks as if we are further descending into apocalyptic territory.

You have people capable of extreme destruction being cornered into an existential state, leaving them with very little rational options. This is when the irrational options starts appearing very rational..

True or not, what if this appears like a western backed coup to Putin and his inner circle. The kind of retaliations such an action would call for is unimaginable.

[lloydatkinson]

As I understand it Wagner have already taken control of or surrounded various buildings in Moscow

[tomalaci]

BBC seems to be more "Live" with recent events including them taking another city/town [1].

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

[messe]

The Guardian's Ukraine live blog has good coverage as well:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/ukraine-live

[tmaly]

I find it funny how everyone is suddenly a Russian foreign policy expert.

Given the fog of war, I am taking a wait and see approach.

[cmurf]

Especially where politics is proscribed. No exercise or training allowed but lets go sprint on race day!

[JeremyNT]

Reporting from a traditional media outlet:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-hi...

[hutzlibu]

My estimation: short term it will fail.

Long term it will lead to substantial power movement.

Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true).

But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly.

And the current options for Prigoshin are

a) become a marty

b) submit to "justice" and public trial (but he knows this will likely not happen, but rather bullet or poison)

c) defect to Ukraine

He already made clear statements, that the war was wrong from the beginning, there was never a threat from Ukraine and the evil military commanders gave Putin wrong information. This sounds to me like building a bridge.

In either case, for the russian empire it is a desaster. And if it becomes a true desaster, there are chances it will become a disaster for everyone, as russian think tanks openly discussed the possibility of "preemptive counter nuclear strike". If they are about to die, they are willing to take everyone with them.

Mostly this is surely bluffing, as they made that statement, while they the internal power struggle was already ongoing as a message to the west: "don't exploit our weakness, we still have nukes". But partly I think it is a legit threat of cornered bullies.

[jacquesm]

> defect to Ukraine

I don't see that happening.

[topspin]

This is off the hook. @mysaigin says the AN-24 shoot down is old... oh well.

If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.

[sph]

This is just a random guy on Twitter. Can we leave this kind of clickbait emotional reporting to Reddit please?

[watwut]

Is that actually confirmed? As in, is there a reason to believe it happened and that it is not some old video from elsewhere resurfacing? (People always post old videos on twitter claiming they relate to current situation.)

[SSchick]

source?

[Redoubts]

What… is this site and what’s with the swiftlang logo

[webmobdev]

It was inevitable - this is what happens when you allow private armies as a business. Nearly a century ago, when the British government decided to take control of a private army the British empire ultimately collapsed because of the backlash from the corporates who ran it. Putin is right to act swiftly and harshly against this kind of behaviour before they become an actual threat to the nation - Mercenaries, unlike national armies, tend to prioritise money and power. (In fact, the harsh action against them seems to suggest that is exactly how the Russians are looking at it - that this group has been paid to rebel).

[logicchains]

The reason they had a private army was to do dirty stuff in Africa that would cause an international incident if the Russian military was involved directly. Without Wagner, it'd have been much harder for Russia to force project.

The core problem is the poorly managed war; Wagner'd be unlikely to rebel if the war was going well and everyone was satisfied with the Russian leadership.

[bsaul]

very confused by the logo, which is the one from the swift programming language. What's the relationship ?

[messe]

A swift is a type of bird:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_(bird)

[55555]

It's not the exact same logo. It may just be another representation of a swift (a type of bird).

[veave]

It looks similar but not the same.

[sour-taste]

Can someone tell me why Putin let it get this far? It seems pretty foreseeable that when you have two independent militaries in constant conflict with each other, and when the heads of both are publicly insulting and threatening each other that eventually this will boil over. Did he just need Wagner that badly that he tolerated the open insults to his military as long as they were winning battles in Ukraine?

Didn't the head of Wagner have close ties to Putin? I guess those are pretty much severed now?

[timeon]

Would smart person start this war in the first place?

[rwmj]

Apparently he prefers to work by having his subordinates and departments fighting with each other (Hitler used the same "management" tactic). What worked in the past for him may not work in the future.

[woodpanel]

> Swift Forecaster: 42%. Very uncertain about this right now.

after the west being duped by him time and again, has there been zero introspection into our own biases? How is anyone believing this?