[nmhancoc]

Every prediction has error bars, some error bars are smaller than others. I wouldn’t be so quick to throw my hands up.

For example, the yield curve inversion has had quite good predictive ability so far, and it’s predicting a recession. If you buy the fed’s data driven approach, that means its predicting rate decreases.

In that case the long term bond market’s prediction is supported more strongly than the fed’s prediction.

[femiagbabiaka]

Pretty much agreed. However, I think there's a huge jump between yield curve predicting a recession (very well founded) and yield curve predicting rates will never come down again, or specifically, that they won't go to zero again (not well founded IMO).