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akrolsmir | 2 years ago

I don't have any special insight into what happened at Oragenics (my full context on this application includes what's listed at the link, plus a short call with Aaron about his fundraising plans). There's a little more color on the Wikipedia page for the cavity vaccine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caries_vaccine

A few HN commenters seem to think that there's a nefarious explanation where a cavity wonder treatment would be unprofitable to develop; I think that's possible, but also it could just be that the company dropped the ball. Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

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jaggederest|2 years ago

I've looked at it pretty extensively over the years and the explanation is pretty obvious: the cost to run the trials would have been ruinous for the return. Look at the clinical requirements for the stage 1 and 2 trials - IRB specified only people without teeth and some other requirement which was prohibitive, like a clean room, or only terminal patients, or something.

It's clear they couldn't raise $10b to fund trials on a timely basis for something that was far from a sure thing - it worked in a couple cases, but imagine if it caused increased heart disease or "no clinical benefit" and you'd poured billions into it.

jansan|2 years ago

Hello billionaires, how about becoming known by future generation as "the person who eradicated cavities"?

petra|2 years ago

Does anybody has access for the document with the clinical requirements ? It seems like an interesting problem.

mkmk|2 years ago

$10b?!

TeMPOraL|2 years ago

> Hanlon's razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

Don't forget about Hanlon's handgun: don't attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by systemic incentives promoting malice.

ClumsyPilot|2 years ago

exactly, playing dumb cant be a free get-out-of-jail card