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smif | 2 years ago

The paper seems to be paywalled so I have no clue about how they arrived here, but this: "That said, the results indicate that the probability we are alone (<1) in the galaxy is significant, while the maximum number of contemporary civilizations might be as few as a thousand."

Doesn't seem to really answer anything. Isn't this just a really fancy way of saying "we don't know the solution to the Drake equation"? It could be a 99.999999...% (<100%) chance of being alone, it could be a 0% chance, or anything in between.

Given the title of the paper, this is a very loose definition of "solution" for the Drake equation ("it could be anything!").

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adastra22|2 years ago

It shows that people doing Drake equation estimates we’re doing their math wrong, and using their own numbers but accounting for uncertainty correctly you get estimates much closer to N=1.