I think the theory of Google's death is that they are "killing the golden goose." The idea is that they are killing off all the independent websites on the internet. That is, all the sites besides Facebook/Instagram/Twitter/NetFlix/Reddit/etc. that people access directly (either through an app or a bookmark) and which (barring Reddit) block GoogleBot anyway.
These are all the sites (like CNET) that Google indexes which are the entire reason to use search. They are having their rankings steadily eroded by an ever-rising tide of SEO spam. If they start dying off en masse and if LLMs emerge as a viable alternative for looking up information, we may see Google Search die along with them.
As for why their revenues are still increasing? It's because all the SEO spam sites out there run Google Ads. This is how we close the loop on the "killing the golden goose" theory. Google uses legitimate sites to make their search engine a viable product and at the same time directs traffic away from those legitimate sites towards SEO spam to generate revenue. It's a transformation from symbiosis/mutualism to parasitism.
Edit: I forgot to mention the last, and darkest, part of the theory. Many of these SEO spam sites engage in large-scale piracy by scraping all their content off legitimate sites. By allowing their ads to run on these sites, Google is essentially acting as an accessory to large-scale, criminal, commercial copyright infringement.
Their search results are declining rapidly in quality. "<SEARCH QUERY> reddit" is one of their most common searches. Their results are filled with SEO spam and bots now.
At some point a competitor will emerge. The tech crowd will notice it and begin to use it. Then it will go widespread.
I suspect that the revenue increases have more to do with the addition of new users in developing markets rather than actual value added. Once all potential users have been reached, Google will have to actually improve their product.
I'm reminded of the 00's era joke that Microsoft could burn billions of dollars, pivot to becoming a vacuum cleaner manufacturer, and finally make something that doesn't suck.
I don't think Google dying would be good (lots of things would have to migrate infra suddenly), but the adtech being split off into something else would certainly be a welcome turn of events, IMO. I'm tired of seeing promising ideas killed because they only made 7-figure numbers in a spreadsheet where it'd have been viable on its own somewhere it wasn't a rounding error.
zx8080|2 years ago
chongli|2 years ago
These are all the sites (like CNET) that Google indexes which are the entire reason to use search. They are having their rankings steadily eroded by an ever-rising tide of SEO spam. If they start dying off en masse and if LLMs emerge as a viable alternative for looking up information, we may see Google Search die along with them.
As for why their revenues are still increasing? It's because all the SEO spam sites out there run Google Ads. This is how we close the loop on the "killing the golden goose" theory. Google uses legitimate sites to make their search engine a viable product and at the same time directs traffic away from those legitimate sites towards SEO spam to generate revenue. It's a transformation from symbiosis/mutualism to parasitism.
Edit: I forgot to mention the last, and darkest, part of the theory. Many of these SEO spam sites engage in large-scale piracy by scraping all their content off legitimate sites. By allowing their ads to run on these sites, Google is essentially acting as an accessory to large-scale, criminal, commercial copyright infringement.
reaperducer|2 years ago
At one time both buggy whips and Philco radios had hockey stick growth charts, too.
You must not bet old enough to remember when people thought MySpace would always drive the internet.
chinchilla2020|2 years ago
At some point a competitor will emerge. The tech crowd will notice it and begin to use it. Then it will go widespread.
mxkopy|2 years ago
nicechianti|2 years ago
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mathstuf|2 years ago
I don't think Google dying would be good (lots of things would have to migrate infra suddenly), but the adtech being split off into something else would certainly be a welcome turn of events, IMO. I'm tired of seeing promising ideas killed because they only made 7-figure numbers in a spreadsheet where it'd have been viable on its own somewhere it wasn't a rounding error.
unknown|2 years ago
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