[cltby]

Assuming:

* average 1% asset management fee (modal number if you poke around)

* 0% investment carry (hedge funds get away with charging this, but most asset managers don't)

* 9% effective tax rate (revenues disproportionately go to high earners)

gets you $1.8B lost tax revenues. The 0% carry assumption is very conservative, so the $1.8B is a lower bound. Even so, CA and NY collect about $400B annually. As a first order thing, this doesn't move the needle very much.

[empath-nirvana]

And also, while this happens, other companies move to NY and California from other states.

[gotoeleven]

A billion here, a billion there pretty soon you're talking about real money.

[afavour]

Sure. But how many companies are arriving? I'll admit I have no clue but if you're taking negative signals, ignoring positive and then wildly extrapolating future expectations... well, don't do that.