[metalspot]

> still wouldn't rule out the possibility of a lab leak

but finding an animal that can spread covid with a plausible story for how it cross over to humans in wuhan is a threshold that has not been crossed yet. if anyone could meet that threshold test it would be treated as proof of natural origin.

but supposing that it was a natural virus that came from an animal in the lab at wuhan then it would be very easy for people with access to that information to identify the natural source, and since that has not happened, it means the virus is either from a natural source that was not in the lab, or it was created in the lab.

the longer time that passes without finding a natural source outside the lab the more likely it is that it was created in the lab.

[jacquesm]

> the longer time that passes without finding a natural source outside the lab the more likely it is that it was created in the lab.

This is not correct. It may well be that the evidence existed but was lost.

The idea that biology will just sit around and wait until we catch up with it is fundamentally mistaken. Some things happen just once and that's that. Some things happen all the time and you can observe them as they happen. Some things leave ample evidence. Biology is not a static system, it isn't a computer program and it isn't a piece of hardware. Your 'bug' may simply not be reproducible even if it in fact did occur just once.

[metalspot]

> the evidence existed but was lost

if the virus crossed over from animals to humans then it must be able to cross back over. viruses evolve quickly, but animals don't, and we have plenty of samples of the original virus. all you have to do is find the right species and infect them with a sample of the virus and show that they can spread it to prove natural origin.

the only scenario where your theory could be true is if the origin species suddenly went extinct after starting the pandemic, which is very improbable.