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Diamond prices are in free fall in one key corner of the market

107 points| latchkey | 2 years ago |bloomberg.com | reply

260 comments

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[+] typest|2 years ago|reply
I just got engaged. When we looked at rings, the jeweler asked my fiancé if she wanted natural or synthetic, and she responded “I don’t want a blood diamond!!” Of course, mined diamonds aren’t blood diamonds, but her impression was still they were a little ickier.

The jeweler told me that one reason to get a natural diamond was that the prices of lab grown diamonds had been falling, whereas natural hasn’t as much, so the ring would hold more value. I told her that was exactly why we wanted to go with a lab grown diamond! This isn’t an investment — we aren’t planning to sell the ring.

Ultimately, for a price that didn’t break the bank, we got an absolutely gorgeous ring with diamonds larger and higher quality than we would have been able to afford with natural. Diamond rings may have started as something to resell in divorce, but for us (for my fiancé really), it was more about getting something that was beautiful, and if it didn’t cost as much, great! I suspect most Americans will feel similarly.

[+] meinmissoula|2 years ago|reply
> Of course, mined diamonds aren’t blood diamonds, but her impression was still they were a little ickier

For all intents and purposes, they are. The voluntary processes the diamond cartels adopted to supposedly reduce diamonds coming out of "conflict areas" are a joke. Most diamonds are mined under exploitive conditions, often with severe ecological impact, and the owners are almost without exception "blood on their hands" people even if one particular mine operates more ethically.

[+] downWidOutaFite|2 years ago|reply
Interesting that your salesperson used the same line as DeBeers does at the end of the article about lab diamonds being too cheap. It must be a sales talking point that comes from on top.

It's seems crazy that Debeers is actually trying to drive lab prices down to make them seem too cheap for bridal use. Their strategy is to try to retain the higher-end luxury market while giving up the more mainstream market where they can't compete.

[+] gloryjulio|2 years ago|reply
> whereas natural hasn’t as much, so the ring would hold more value.

This is purely the diamond scam. There is no market for selling ur used diamond. The diamond merchant sell u the high price, but u will not be able to do same to get the money back from the next sucker

[+] Nursie|2 years ago|reply
> so the ring would hold more value

A nice little white lie by omission anyway, as the resale value of a diamond drops up to 50% when it leaves the store! If you were planning for an investment, you'd be better off looking elsewhere.

[+] OkayPhysicist|2 years ago|reply
Actually, right now there's a significant chance that mined diamonds are blood diamonds. Russia took over the international diamond industry after the collapse of DeBeer's monopoly, and naturally they claim any conflict they're involved in doesn't make their diamonds conflict diamonds, but on the other hand Wagner is being paid in mineral extraction rights for their actions in some very bloody African conflicts.
[+] jncfhnb|2 years ago|reply
Go with moissanite. Vastly cheaper. Looks better.
[+] RandallBrown|2 years ago|reply
When I bought my wife's engagement ring the jeweler showed me 3 different diamonds in my price range and then had me pick the one that I thought looked the best.

I ended up picking a lab grown diamond and was able to get a larger and (in my opinion) prettier diamond. My wife didn't seem to mind that it was lab grown when I eventually told her.

[+] rcme|2 years ago|reply
Yea lab grown diamonds are insanely cheap. You can buy them on Alibaba. A 3 carat, D VVS1 with an excellent cut is $3K.
[+] glimshe|2 years ago|reply
Diamonds are a TERRIBLE investment and usually lose around 50% (natural) to 90% (synthetic) on sale. But think like this: if a ring costs 10K natural and 2K synthetic, a 50% loss on natural would correspond to losing 5K. A 90% loss on synthetic would correspond to losing 1.8K. You're still on top big time.

I gave my wife a large synthetic diamond ring for our 15th anniversary and she absolutely loved it.

[+] theonlybutlet|2 years ago|reply
It's my opinion they're not an asset, unless you own the cullinan diamond or something very pricey, they're going to depreciate, just at a slower rate perhaps. Older diamond cuts go for less as we get better at cutting techniques, the rest of the ring also loses value as the setting goes out of fashion.

The icky diamond thing is arguable, these are generally mined in countries with decent labour laws. On the contrary, lab diamonds require few workers and takes food out the mouth of poorer mine workers who become jobless.

[+] rkuska|2 years ago|reply
When I proposed I got a ring with natural diamond. But being aware of all the shenanigans around diamonds I decided to get imperfect diamond. Especially because of the artificial diamonds - I assumed they would strive for perfect diamonds and therefore would make my imperfect one more unique later. Salt & pepper one. It looks like somebody has trapped a galaxy inside it. It's beautiful and it didn't cost much (compared to pure diamonds).
[+] javajosh|2 years ago|reply
Sorry to be negative, but I think the conventions around marriage needs to be redone alongside all the other changes around marriage. To wit, the ability of a woman to divorce you and receive alimony and child support for basically the rest of her life. It's not clear to me what reason a rational person has for NOT getting divorced after enough time has elapsed that alimony is possible. Roughly 50% of marriages end in divorce; 50% of those are high conflict. When you buy a ring and give it to her, this will not factor into that judgement. You can pay for everything and the only thing the judge will look at is your incomes. Be smart and split everything down the middle, including the ring.
[+] extraduder_ire|2 years ago|reply
This gets me wondering if anyone's made lab grown diamonds with real, ideally their own, blood. Maybe stuart semple.
[+] arcticbull|2 years ago|reply
De Beers basically controls the whole diamond market. They make it almost impossible to resell them and strictly control the supply. They were also responsible (via advertising agency N. W. Ayer) for the idea that diamonds should be used in engagement rings in 1938-1941.

This write-up from The Atlantic from 1982 explains the situation well. [1]

Not sad to see the cartel taking an L.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/02/have-yo...

[+] zokier|2 years ago|reply
Lots of things have happened in the 40 years since that article was written. De Beers do not control the market anymore the way they did before. Wikipedia says

> De Beers's market share of rough diamonds to fall from as high as 90% in the 1980s to 29.5% in 2019

> De Beers sold off the vast majority of its diamond stockpile in the late 1990s – early 2000s and the remainder largely represents working stock (diamonds that are being sorted before sale). This was well documented in the press but remains little known to the general public.

> As a part of reducing its influence, De Beers withdrew from purchasing diamonds on the open market in 1999 and ceased, at the end of 2008, purchasing Russian diamonds mined by the largest Russian diamond company Alrosa

[+] another_poster|2 years ago|reply
A good analogy is ice. We all use “freezer-grown crystalline water,” but prior to the invention of refrigeration, we harvested natural ice from frozen lakes and stored them in ice houses for use throughout the summer.

Sure, there’s some romance from hand-harvested ice, but you can’t beat the price and purity of ice from a freezer.

[+] OJFord|2 years ago|reply
It's crazy to prefer a natural diamond for anything other than a collectors' item. It's not about being 'cheap' - whatever your budget is, if you're picking an engagement ring say, why not get a technically superior (or larger) stone for the same price tag?
[+] slashdev|2 years ago|reply
I pitched this to my wife a few years back. She insisted she’d rather have a smaller natural diamond. It makes no sense to me. Shiny carbon is shiny carbon to me. There’s no real logic in it. But given it’s a status symbol that derives its value from its rareness, I suppose it’s no different than a Luis Vutton or a Rolex. It’s not about the function, it’s about the fact that you can afford one. I hate that mentality, I refuse to buy anything like that for myself.
[+] irrational|2 years ago|reply
I purchased a 1 carat diamond ring for my now-wife in the mid-1990s for $600. For our 25th wedding anniversary my wife and I designed a new solid gold ring using Moissanite stones that cost about $700. She loves her new ring and everyone thinks the stones are real diamonds. We've even had jewelers comment on her diamond ring. I truly don't understand why anyone would go with diamonds these days.
[+] jpn|2 years ago|reply
> The handicap principle is a hypothesis proposed by the biologist Amotz Zahavi to explain how evolution may lead to "honest" or reliable signalling between animals which have an obvious motivation to bluff or deceive each other. It suggests that costly signals must be reliable signals, costing the signaller something that could not be afforded by an individual with less of a particular trait

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handicap_principle

[+] Xcelerate|2 years ago|reply
I want a lab grown diamond in the shape of a giant wafer. That way I can build a pan around it and use that to cook food in. That incredible thermal conductivity is wasted sitting in a piece of jewelry.
[+] mortureb|2 years ago|reply
Because it’s something women show off precisely as a signal of how much it cost. It has only so much to do with its aesthetic beauty.
[+] blacksmith_tb|2 years ago|reply
But if we're being logical then you might as well go with Moissanite (lab-grown silicon carbide) instead of diamond, which is cheaper, nearly as tough, and also has better fire?
[+] RandallBrown|2 years ago|reply
Humans assign value to tradition and history.

While a lab grown diamond might be technically superior, there's something sort of romantic and interesting with the fact that it has been in the earth for a billion years and somehow made its way into your ring.

That said, my wife has a lab grown diamond in her engagement ring.

[+] xwdv|2 years ago|reply
What about an artificial meteorite instead of an actual one?
[+] Trias11|2 years ago|reply
..and add here technically superior plastic flowers with a selection of natural scent sprays :)
[+] Waterluvian|2 years ago|reply
I dunno… it seems no less crazy than people who put “three months salary” on their finger.
[+] throw3747874747|2 years ago|reply
If future wife requires diamond, another stone is not going to fix root problem you have. Go with someone less materialistic.
[+] motohagiography|2 years ago|reply
One of the scandals post 2008 crash was how bankers in Switzerland would use diamonds packed into tubes of toothpaste to spirit millions of dollars out of various countries.

Diamonds were essentially a shadow banking system, with analogies to the way crypto exchanges work today. You put cash in to get a tiny portable stone that you could exchange for cash or deposits anywhere else in the world, and you could reliably transfer massive amounts of capital around without records. Simultaneously diamonds made wealth both highly visible, and completely invisible when they disappeared. No public ledger either.

[+] adolph|2 years ago|reply
What an interesting story of pricing in a cultural market with encumbant and new tech, and a cartel attempting to retain its market power but slowly losing ground.

In June 2022, De Beers was charging about $1,400 a carat for the select makeable diamonds. By July this year, that had dropped to about $850 a carat. And there may be more room to fall: the diamonds are still 10% more expensive than in the “secondary” market, where traders and manufacturers sell among themselves.

. . .

. . . India, where about 90% of global supply is cut and polished. Lab grown accounted for about 9% of diamond exports from the country in June, compared with about 1% five years ago. Given the steep discount that they sell for, that means about 25% to 35% of volume is now lab grown, according to Liberum Capital Markets.

. . .

About five years ago, lab grown gems sold at about a 20% discount to natural diamonds, but that has now blown out to around 80% as the retailers push them at increasingly lower prices and the cost of making them falls. The price of polished stones in the wholesale market has fallen by more than half this year alone.

[+] Fezzik|2 years ago|reply
What a great opportunity to re-share one of my favorite articles: https://priceonomics.com/diamonds-are-bullshit/

I really can’t think of an example better than people buying shiny rocks for absurd amounts of money that demonstrates how non-advanced we are, as a society generally.

[+] bluedevil2k|2 years ago|reply
The same can be said of BMWs, Philip Patek, Louis Vuitton, and dozens of other luxury brands. People like buying status signals, but it doesn’t signal how “non-advanced” we are. It’s how society has always worked and will always work.
[+] kylehotchkiss|2 years ago|reply
> Diamond demand across the board has weakened after the pandemic, as consumers splash out again on travel and experiences, while economic headwinds eat into luxury spending

Are people becoming more careful about such valuable purchases since losing a diamond ring is so heartbreaking? It seems like the concept of "throwaway" rings is increasing so you don't have to worry about losing the real one which is an argument no person ever wants to have with their spouse. I keep my real one locked away and wear a titanium one around.

[+] causality0|2 years ago|reply
Frankly I'm amazed it took this long for people to realize diamond isn't that special a material, at least considering how easy it is to make.
[+] silisili|2 years ago|reply
Not just that, even natural diamonds just aren't that rare.

This is what happens when one company corners a market, and controls supply and marketing.

[+] skywhopper|2 years ago|reply
Makes total sense. Lab-created diamonds have been indistinguishable (for the typical consumer) from natural ones for years. DeBeers kept jewelry retailers in line in pushing "real" diamonds, but it was just a matter of time until something happened to shake that hold lose. Given the rapid switch away from gold for wedding bands etc after the 2008 crisis led to a major price spike, it is not surprising to me that jewelry consumers are willing to question whether "real" diamonds are worth the premium cost as well.
[+] webignition|2 years ago|reply
Might lab-grown diamonds have reached a point of being indistinguishable from natural diamonds such that people pass off lab-grown diamonds as natural diamonds without anyone being able to tell?
[+] michael_vo|2 years ago|reply
Too bad we can’t use virtual NFT engagement rings mined specially with high carbon footprint with the gas fees donated to the babies of divorce lawyers.
[+] gnicholas|2 years ago|reply
I wonder what the second-order consequences will be. That is, people will still want to signal their commitment/ability to provide when proposing, so the drop in the price of diamonds won't necessarily reduce the overall outlay.

Instead, it would shift the expense to another category (platinum or other expensive metals) or simply lead people to buy more carats (4 is the new 2!). In some ways, these moves could help luxury brands like Tiffany, since their well-known price premium would provide the same signaling device for folks who want to spend tens of thousands of dollars when proposing.

[+] jgalt212|2 years ago|reply
I've bought a number of lab grown diamonds. For anything at 1 carat or under, you'd be a fool to buy a mined diamond.

I really want to buy a lab-grown tennis bracelet, but no luck yet finding one from a reputable vendor.

[+] Tao3300|2 years ago|reply
> "With the increase in supply we’ll see prices fall through the price point and reach a level where, long term, it does not compete with bridal because it comes too cheap"

WOOSH

[+] ftxbro|2 years ago|reply
> the kinds of stones that go into the cheaper one- or two-carat solitaire bridal rings popular in the US have experienced far sharper price drops than the rest of the market
[+] water-data-dude|2 years ago|reply
I wonder how prohibitively expensive it would be to grow a ring made entirely out of diamond.
[+] jiveturkey|2 years ago|reply
title is clickbaity. HN title should improve on it. This is about rough cut diamonds under 2 carats. the price is down due to popularity of synthetic diamonds of these sizes. retail price of a finished product hasn't felt it yet, and may not.