[slondr]

“inevitable”? hardly. how many first-year Leafs are out there on the original battery? a lot, i’d reckon most. how many dead Leafs are out there which were totalled because of needing a new battery? certainly less than those which were totalled due to rust, collision, etc., ie the things that kill gas cars too.

[PeterisP]

Thing is, first-year Leaf really isn't an old car.

Outside of the richest countries there are whole communities who'd never buy a new car, because the car they can afford to buy is a much-used cheap car that's the same age as the first-year Leaf is now; the rich countries/communities drive the first 10 years of a car, buy a new car, and the used car gets sold in poorer areas where most people don't ever buy new cars, because even the entry level new cars are like twice the cost they would afford. The ICE market provides a significant quantity of such used cars, which are cheap because of the wear and tear of being 10-15 years old but are still likely to be usable for a very long time if you maintain them properly.

Are 15 year old Leafs a comparable alternative to 15 year old ICE Hondas? If after the EV revolution buying a 15 year old car ceases to be an affordable option because it will need an unreasonably expensive replacement (compared to the value of such an old car) to be usable for 10 more years, then that's a major societal change in the affordability of transport.

[rini17]

So you imply refurbishing a car battery pack will be unreasonably expensive? Why?

And real world data does not suggest that will be needed at all. Sure there are outliers like someone damaging battery by doing only supercharging but that's exception like not changing oil in ICE.

[surfingdino]

The car may be maintained properly, but I see problem getting batteries and other components. When old batteries are no longer being made, the car becomes useless. Similarly, when you cannot get the electric and electronic components, the car is heading for a scrap yard. I'd love to hear from someone who is closer to the matter and knows is third-party battery or electronic component replacements for old EVs are a thing?

[asdff]

Not sure about leafs, but with teslas the batteries are only warrantied for 8 years and 150k miles. If you live somewhere with winters it probably diminishes a lot faster. With a gas car there are things you have to do around this mileage too e.g. timing belt and water pump but thats a fix thats an order of magnitude cheaper than an ev battery replacement.

[raisedbyninjas]

Tesla's warranty also guarantees 70% minimum of original battery life. That is similar to the degradation you'll see in a gas car. My 10 year old Mazda has lost about 12% of its fuel economy from new and it's never had engine trouble. Low income people will probably continue to buy used cars like they do now.

[doctor_eval]

Well if EV battery prices continue to decline at a similar rate - and there’s no reason not to expect this - then in 8-10 years the cost of the batteries is going to be about ¼ of today’s cost. So it doesn’t really seem like it will be such a burden.