[dirtyid]

No, the problem is PLENTY of people want to buy to speculate in PRC RE bubble, which cost even more in terms of misallocation long term. Hence RE crackdown, now there's vacancy rate / oversupply of ~50m units, which can be soaked up in ~5 years of urbanization. PRC urbanization goal in next 5 years is 65->70%, 75% around 2035, that's 140m bodies = more than 50m households. That's not even considering many of these vacant units are for 10s of millions of youths kids once they get married. Sure some speculators will get fuckedjust like millions of forclosures in US during GFC, some of the units are genuinely misallocated (poor geography relative to demand etc). That's unavoidable when a bubble gets popped.

The current problem isn't excess housing stock, 50m is wasteful but not excessively so buffer. The problem was presales was tying up too much investment in RE, driving up housing prices and affordibility. Central gov wants people to invest in SMIC not Evergrande, so 3RL crackdown which is going to take a few years to unwind as central gov forces developers to finish or return deposits while they're being slowly dismantled - priority is to make buyers whole. In the mean time there's some capital stuck in the system, which is bad but not end of world. Medium long term, PRC's initial shitty housing stock is approaching 50+ years end of life, and demand for new replacement square meter is going to kick in.

TLDR is the inefficiency is not primarily the surplus, it's the bubble, and the bubble sapping investments away from other sectors.

The entire EV graveyard narrative is extra retardedly overblown by western media (like bike graveyards). There's a few car share fleet graveyard and subsidy scams amounting to a few 100s of thousands of heavily used urban fleet cars or useless scam chasis. This is out of growing 2-3m total car share fleet and projected 100s of millions of future EV sales. Now both sectors have or is active being consolidated to drive out bad players. Bluntly, it's fucking nothing, a few billion in waste vs 100s of billions gained per year in building new sector. Hurricanes destroy significantly more cars than that every few years in the US. Like everytime PRC decides to go HAM on pursuing an sector, there's some initial overcapacity and waste but things even out when sector matures. Ask any auto export power if they would waste a few billion dollars and few hundred thousand scraped hulls to be where PRC EV is now, and they'd say yes to a trade 10x that.

[clouddrover]

> oversupply of ~50m units, which can be soaked up in ~5 years of urbanization

Fueled by what? The jobs people don't have:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/26/china/35-curse-unemployme...

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/14/economy/china-economy-jul...

[dirtyid]

Baseline PRC unemployment is 5%. CNN cherry picking some interviews of milleninials in tier1 cities who don't want to work hard, i.e. not do well compensated manufacturing jobs because it's manual labour... or women getting discriminated against for being old (who btw will have a house waiting for them as part of marriage package) illustrates what? Either way, article talks about urban subjects, who by definition are already urbanized and already home owners.

The TLDR is PRC urbanization strategies isn't targetted at tier1 cities, it's targetted at tier 2/3/4 cities. They don't want tier1 cities getting denser, they want density to spread, especially to increasingly developing interior provinces and where most of the new industry hubs are being situated. Incidentally, a lot of the extra shit potential speculative RE is happening in this area. There's plenty of rural people from these regions that PRC is trying urbanize but being priced out due to richer tier speculators driving up prices.