IIRC, the NYAG/JPM report from a few years back almost explicitly said "this is totally criminal and entirely fraudulent, but it's too late to stop, because if we do, the entire global financial system will explode"
I think you're remembering incorrectly. Crypto is large, but nowhere near large enough to cause contagion risk, especially because nobody is stupid enough to lever against it as though it was a AAA asset (like they did for American mortgages). If every single cryptocurrency was zeroed tomorrow, the global economy would shrug and move on.
Quite possible. The closest I can find is [1] (via [0]), which upon re-reading suggests the cryptoverse, not the global economy, would blow up. Perhaps I'm conflating it with the general warnings of the era [2,3,4].
Though I swear I recall reading some ominous wording, pointed out by another commenter, that subtly suggested the decision to quietly settle vs. aggressively prosecute was based on billions of dollars of potential economic fallout. Other articles [2,3,4] talk about contagion risk, but none are exactly what I recall. Funny how memory works!
One almost hopes it happens solely to shut up the crypto bros that still refuse to accept the primary use case for crypto is scams.
Sure it can be a distributed concencus/ledger system/smart contract system almost no one important needs or will use, or will reuse the idea internally themselves if it's useful.
Anything important won't be built on something they can't control or manage. Crypto by definition is that. So you have to really consider what this built on it and who's profiting from it.
Arguably the crypto blowup last year did result in some contagion, being one of the triggers for the US’s recent Medium Sized Bank Crisis. Though, also, arguably that was coming anyway, one way or another.
the term is contagion. and in this case it is probably hyperbolic, but basically when people rely on one asset as a medium of exchange, and that asset turns out to be of poor quality or worthless, then it affects many other assets and businesses.
if balance sheets and collateral for loans for big businesses were all in tether it stopped being redeemable or traded at $0, the businesses would have nothing on their balance sheet and all their lenders would realize the collateral was also missing, and the lenders also would realize they wouldn't get paid and had lent on bad assurances. The lenders would also lose money on all those loans, and their capital partners would lose money (private equity firms and their limited partners) and everyone that relied on payouts from the PE firms would have to change their forecasting, and the PE firm would not be investing in the economy anymore, making a hole in that market. Depending on how many PE firms were doing this it could grind a significant part of the economy to a halt.
good news is that typically the government fills in the gap. but people don't like that.
Analemma_|2 years ago
suckitsam|2 years ago
Though I swear I recall reading some ominous wording, pointed out by another commenter, that subtly suggested the decision to quietly settle vs. aggressively prosecute was based on billions of dollars of potential economic fallout. Other articles [2,3,4] talk about contagion risk, but none are exactly what I recall. Funny how memory works!
uhhhhhhh|2 years ago
Sure it can be a distributed concencus/ledger system/smart contract system almost no one important needs or will use, or will reuse the idea internally themselves if it's useful.
Anything important won't be built on something they can't control or manage. Crypto by definition is that. So you have to really consider what this built on it and who's profiting from it.
rsynnott|2 years ago
checkyoursudo|2 years ago
yieldcrv|2 years ago
if balance sheets and collateral for loans for big businesses were all in tether it stopped being redeemable or traded at $0, the businesses would have nothing on their balance sheet and all their lenders would realize the collateral was also missing, and the lenders also would realize they wouldn't get paid and had lent on bad assurances. The lenders would also lose money on all those loans, and their capital partners would lose money (private equity firms and their limited partners) and everyone that relied on payouts from the PE firms would have to change their forecasting, and the PE firm would not be investing in the economy anymore, making a hole in that market. Depending on how many PE firms were doing this it could grind a significant part of the economy to a halt.
good news is that typically the government fills in the gap. but people don't like that.