[neetdeth]

Unpopular opinion: Just bring back testing.

I’ve seen way too many people speculate recently that Russia’s nuclear arsenal possibly doesn’t work. This is incredibly dangerous.

What’s the plan when humanity is so many decades into a test ban that nuclear detonations are a generational memory? Something akin to a myth. The relative stability afforded by MAD doctrine is bound to decline.

[bob1029]

I agree.

How long until subcritical experiments need to turn into supercritical ones? At some point you have to do an integration test or no one can say anything of certainty.

Proving a sample of plutonium emits the right dose of radiation when whacked appropriately is a great starting point, but it doesn't validate the rest of the weapon system.

You could test the bombs with inert cores to prove everything outside the physics package is valid, but there is still the "but sometimes" bullshit space where perhaps the core seems good on paper but the neutron initiator has an undue delay related to aging circuitry and we lose 80% of the expected yield. Whatever the case - in isolation both system elements might test OK but they could still fail when combined.

I feel like the dial-a-yield devices are most precarious (e.g. B61). How could you really know you aren't going to over/undershoot massively? What is the range of uncertainty on that system after 3 decades?

[jjoonathan]

> undue delay related to aging circuitry

Instead of a dumb inert core they use a smart inert core that broadcasts precise measurements of the implosion using fiber optics and triboluminescent capsules that flash as the implosion wavefront crushes them. The computer has to broadcast the data before it itself gets crushed microseconds later. But yes, I still share your overall concern even though we can push the question marks one step later in the delicate process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYdAT0v4DHs

[D-Coder]

> What is the range of uncertainty on that system after 3 decades?

On a NUCLEAR BOMB? Who cares if it's 50% bigger or smaller than expected? These are not precision weapons.

[justahuman74]

Also: we don't want someone lobbing 10x as many warheads because they only think half work

I think a few countries will feel a bit vulnerable at some point (like Poland/Japan/Australia/SouthKorea) and start to question if concepts like the US umbrella is truly a sufficient deterrent, and probably start their own development/testing

[giantg2]

If they're lobbing any, they're probably lobbing most anyways.

[nkrisc]

Only launching one 10th of their warheads? What are the saving the other 90% for, exactly? The next nuclear war? A rainy day?

[bhickey]

While game theory is useful when developing nuclear strategy I don't think anyone takes MAD seriously: It isn't subgame perfect. Once the rockets are up, retaliation is no longer credible... because the purpose of the threat of retaliation is to discourage an attack in the first place.

[thsksbd]

MAD is stable because people aren't rational beings and game theory is therefore nuts.

When I have 500 nukes headed my way, I wont stop to think "well, maybe the remaining 10% of my population can scrape by a living as dogs. Lets not retaliate and maybe they wont launch their remaining 500"

Ill think: "fuck 'em m! launch everything we got"

[jowea]

That's what dead's man switch[0] and madman theory are for. Or just human nature, specifically hate and desire for vengeance and punishment I guess.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand

[saboot]

Would you be comfortable with testing being done near where you live?

Why not? And where would you propose instead?

[ceejayoz]

Why would you test them near where someone lives?

Deep underground in unpopulated areas works fairly well; we learned how to do it without fallout as early as the late 1950s. You're at dramatically greater health risk living downwind of a coal power plant.

[dboreham]

Fair point. Perhaps also worth noting that an "end-to-end" test has been performed by the US exactly once.

[tpmx]

(Twice.)

I find it somewhat incredible from a pure engineering point of view that Trinity worked in the first test and that both Little Boy (Test #2) and Fat Man (Test #3) also worked.

[andbberger]

which test was that

[danbruc]

Or just get rid of all nuclear weapons.

[oceanplexian]

If you have some ideas on how to change the laws of physics I’m all ears. Otherwise someone will always be able to build one.

[jjoonathan]

You get to choose what you do, not what the other guy does.

[thsksbd]

And get rid of all guns while your at it.

[bayindirh]

> Just bring back testing.

...and rolling earthquakes with that. Why not? Great idea.