[adrians1]

> If the speed of improvement stays anywhere near the level it was the last two years, then over the next two decades, it will lead to massive changes in how we work and which skills are valuable.

That's a big assumption to make. You can't assume that the rate of improvement will stay the same, especially over a period of 2 decades, which is a very long time. Every advance in technology hits diminishing returns at some point.

[mg]

Why do you think so?

Technological progress seems rather accelerated than diminishing to me.

Computers are a great example: They have been getting more capable exponentially over the last decades.

In terms of performance (memory, speed, bandwidth) and in terms of impact. First we had calculators, then we had desktop applications, then the Internet and now we have AI.

And AI will help us get to the next stage even faster.

[hashtag-til]

I’m not putting my coins on this advances.

More likely this will become the new “search” technology and get polluted with ads. People will lose trust and it will decay.