[Zeratoss]

Snow in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to be cleaner by the end of this century — an effect that will partially offset the effects of global warming1.

Global warming has reduced snowfall and accelerated snowmelt in mountainous regions, threatening the supply of fresh water for two billion people worldwide. Snow melts even faster if it is covered with sooty particles of black carbon, which are produced by the burning of wood and fossil fuels.

Dalei Hao at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington, and his colleagues used simulations to assess how much soot will land on snow in the next several decades. They project a reduction in black-carbon pollution in snow-covered regions across the Northern Hemisphere between 2015 and the end of the twenty-first century.

Even if global carbon emissions continue to rise for the next half-century, the amount of solar radiation the snow absorbs because of soot and dust pollution will be 62.3% less by 2100 than when the snow was dirtier. The whitening of the snowpack is expected to slow its loss and increase the availability of fresh water, the scientists say.

[londons_explore]

I consider the likely margin of error on this research to be large.

There are just so many variables and effects to consider - modelling this behaviour to any level of precision seems very hard.

[wredue]

It is difficult, but having a clearer picture with more variables accounted for doesn’t hurt, unless you take modern models and try to run them with less accurate, or outright missing older data (which climate change deniers frequently do as a “gotcha” to scientists).

[treyd]

How much is that actually expected to reduce the overall warming effect?