[rjrodger]

To me this looks like a Jevons Paradox situation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox [1]

Increased developer productivity will lead to a lot more software development, at all levels, rather than less.

1. "In economics, the Jevons paradox occurs when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the falling cost of use induces increases in demand enough that resource use is increased, rather than reduced."

[fauigerzigerk]

Yes, demand grows as prices drop. I don't doubt this general principle for a second. But the question is about degrees. If the cost of making software at today's level of quality and quantity drops by half, what share of the savings is going to be spent on more and better software, what share is going to be spent on other things and what share will be used to cut prices?

I think there is no general answer to this question. What would Netflix do if software development costs dropped by half? Develop twice as much software? Spend it on more content? Cut the price of subscriptions? In this specific case, my bet would be on content.

[renlo]

To me software _is_ content because it's tied to attention and consumption. There will always be humans producing it and consuming it, it isn't a limited resource that goes away once a tool comes along to make it easier to produce. If the costs halve, then more is produced.

[FrustratedMonky]

Let's not forget that reduced cotton prices (because of a technological improvement) did make cotton more affordable, lots of new clothes at reduced prices, increased demand, but it didn't turn out that great for the slaves.

[delecti]

The relevant aspect of what you're referencing is that it led to more slaves.

For more than a decade, software developers have easily been able to get low 6 figure jobs right out of college. We're pretty far from slaves.