[hshsbs84848]

“Goldman Sachs Research estimates the EV market could achieve cost parity, without subsidies, with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles around the middle of this decade”

That would be quite the milestone

I’m curious at what point it will flip and EVs become cheaper than ICE

[Animats]

Shortly after 2025, apparently.

And this can keep going.

A big pending change: if the solid state battery with 10 minute charge time works, gas stations can become charging stations. Pull out the pumps and tanks, put in the chargers, keep the islands and the convenience store. Charging stations now look like gas stations, not parking lots. Transitioning to BEV does not require new real estate.

By 2030-2035, people with gas cars will be looking at maps to find open gas stations.

[smileysteve]

I think that gas stations will be harder to find sooner; 95% of the time, 70% of ev owners will charge at home, where the daily average commute is possible to charge on a 129v circuit.

With adoption already at 5%, that's a serious threat to gas station visits; imagine 10% fewer people stopping at a gas station a given week, or 20%. And this doesn't only apply to bevs, but to a smaller degree phevs too.

Service centers (fewer oil, brakes, coolant changes), dealerships (because engine and transmission failure decreases), and eventually auto parts stores will also see this volume of customers decrease.

Getting to 2030 is going to be wild.

[cogman10]

> Pull out the pumps and tanks, put in the chargers, keep the islands and the convenience store. Charging stations now look like gas stations, not parking lots. Transitioning to BEV does not require new real estate.

You really don't need to even do that. You can put a charger at every parking lot in front of the convenience store (Already happening in a few locations around me).

But also, most charging (at least early on) will be happening at home. There really is no need to convert every gas station into a charging station. We just need major throughways covered. The one missing piece is L2 chargers, We need more of those installed in more locations. For example, employers could easily put them in office parking lots. With 8 hours to charge, you could even do L1 chargers.

[throitallaway]

> By 2030-2035, people with gas cars will be looking at maps to find open gas stations.

That's a wild statement. Not everyone replaces their vehicles every year. Some people drive a car for 10-20 (+) years before ditching it. There will assuredly still be plenty of open gas stations in 2035.

[WD40forRust34]

>By 2030-2035, people with gas cars will be looking at maps to find open gas stations.

I'm already doing that now for true Diesel #2 in SoCal with my '15 VW GSW TDI SEL. Diesel was always hit-and-miss being at about a third of stations, but now it seems like two-thirds of the stations which had Diesel #2 converted to some B20-B50 variant or even R99.

I wonder how many diesel fuel systems are getting absolutely pwned by ignorant owners putting high(er) biodiesel content fuel in contact with gaskets which will swell and fail once the owners switch back to Diesel #2...

[AtlasBarfed]

I'm pretty sure Tesla is already there, they are milking the profits right now though.

150 wh/kg sodium ion and 200+wh/kg LFP is going to be the workhorse of this price improvement. Sodium Ion should only be 30-40$/kwhr, and 2025-ish is when CATL expects to hit 200wh/kg sodium ion and 250 wh/kg LFP.

So its a double assault: higher density with cheaper materials. Waiting in the wings are solid state and sulfur techs among others.

IMO what is needed is a gradual phase-out EV price credit (not a tax credit) that starts at $10,000 and drops $1000 per year. Meanwhile, ICE cars should get taxed at registration $500 extra and that increases $500 per year.

[lttlrck]

$500 a year will take a lot of perfectly functional ICE cars off the road, to what end? And it would punish lower income families.

Gas prices alone are enough stick for this transition.

[oezi]

When will we see any consumer products utilizing sodium ion batteries at this price point? A 10kwh battery for less than 1000 USD certainly would change a lot of calculations around home solar.

[grecy]

> I’m curious at what point it will flip and EVs become cheaper than ICE

If Tesla can pull off some of the manufacturing efficiencies and improvements they talked about at their last investor day, it seems very likely their up coming "smaller" vehicle will be exactly that.

[hedora]

I think the crossover point is pretty much here already, at least for certain models, and if you make price-sensitive decisions.

After I figured in gasoline costs and my commute in California, I worked out that my used luxury EV would save 100% of its purchase price in gasoline (even accounting for electricity costs) in something like 3-5 years.

[r00fus]

Some Teslas are already cheaper than the median vehicle cost.

[aaomidi]

I feel like once the cost drops, it will be just in maintenance alone.

[cfeduke]

> it will be just in maintenance alone

Can confirm; >5 years on a Model 3 and other than tires $0 in maintenance so far. >3 years on a Model Y and other than tires, $0 in maintenance so far. Absolute huge cost and time savings compared to my ICE vehicles, even when I perform my own maintenance on them.

[jmrm]

Looking about how much expensive ICE cars have got isn't that difficult than 5 years ago.

[michpoch]

It is a bit less of a milestone considering how inflated ICE prices became.

Once they normalise EV prices will be still really far off.

[rafaelmn]

What makes you think they will drop ?

[freshfunk]

Generally this is unlikely the happen (obviously will depend on which EV and which ICE). The reason being is that consumers have generally accepted the cost for cars at a certain level. Rather than dropping the price for cars, they add more features or improve quality to justify a certain price point.

The average ICE engine hasn't changed, from a technology standpoint, has not changed in decades. What's changed is all the internal technology (entertainment systems, parking cameras) as well as trim that's become standard (power everything). These standards are defined by the market. Case in point: see what the standard for cars (both quality and price) are for a given market like US vs India.

It's unlikely they will lower margins so much as to make less money from EV's than from ICE cars. An analogous model are iPhones. The old iPhones could be sold today at a fraction of the price but instead they release new models with better features to justify the higher price point.

(This is all with a caveat that I'm talking about sticker price. Given that EV maintenance should generally be cheaper, without a doubt the target is to have the total cost of ownership be lower than an ICE car as that's how EV's are being positioned today.)

[nicoburns]

The traditional manufacturers might not, but EVs are lot simpler to make than ICE cars, and that might make it easier for new entrants to enter the market. At the moment that’s somewhat offset by the difficulty in and cost of procuring batteries, but once those become commodities I’d expect (some) EVs to be cheaper.