[dalbasal]

Well written. Well done. Early hn vibes.

A lot more in here, that actually helps to understand what's going on with openai, and what might happen next in the space.

I think the last paragraph is a key point/question.

"Ultimately, though, one could make the argument that not much has changed at all: it has been apparent for a while that AI was, at least in the short to medium-term, a sustaining innovation, not a disruptive one, which is to say it would primarily benefit and be deployed by the biggest companies. The costs are so high that it’s hard for anyone else to get the money... ..This, in the end, was Nadella’s insight: the key to winning if you are big is not to invent like a startup, but to leverage your size to acquire or fast-follow them."

Use models like innovative disruption with caution. Look to their assumptions.

How this plays out is not going to follow the pattern of web 2.0 or Kodak digitization.

The road to AGI is one thing. The road to 1 billion market caps.. not necessarily that same thing.

The road to victory, or definition of victory, are very vague still.