[dpierce9]

From the parent: “Political uncertainty about the future energy system is jacking up the rate of return investors are demanding of gas plant projects without contracted revenues.”

Your argument about lobbyists creating certainty doesn’t follow. Not all people in an industry have the same interests (gas generators and gas producers both like gas but price impacting regulation will create divergences). Lobbyists may reduce certainty because, for example, a super convincing lobbyist might instigate changes to an staid regime. The cumulative impact of different, less effective lobbyists over time may wash out or it may cause branches.

[bumby]

Ok, I'll try to be more explicit with the caveat that it's possible I'm reading too much between the OP's lines.

"future energy systems" means, in this case, battery and EV tech. Had it said "legacy energy systems" I agree that it does not follow. However, as stated, they are saying "we just don't know what's going to be on the political horizon. Maybe a ultra-conservative will be in the white house and all of these subsidies that help foster future energy systems will go out the window." Again, it's about the volatility of less-entrenched, prospective industries that are more reliant on policies to make them viable.

Entrenched lobbyists, almost by definition, want to keep the status quo. So I don't think we can agree that they are likely to institute massive changes. Put differently, do you think it's more likely that fossil fuel subsidies or that renewable subsidies will be dramatically reduced if the WH changes parties in the next election?