top | item 38432960

(no title)

antoinexp | 2 years ago

Might depend on the terms you have in mind, but current consensus seems to be more like 4-5 years as we speak on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-me...

discuss

order

auntienomen|2 years ago

That's 4-5 years for solving Olympiad problems. Those are just very tricky high school math problems. They have solutions and can generally be solved by applying some combination of standard tricks. It's very much the sort of thing an LLM should be good at.

Solving Millennium problems is a whole different ballgame. It's not known if these problems are solvable within ZFC axioms. (In one case, the Yang-Mills prize, stating the problem mathematically is part of the challenge.) All of the obvious applications of known tricks have been tried and failed. To solve such problems, one probably has to invent new and surprising mathematical definitions, building a framework in which the problem becomes solvable. This is something that LLMs will be crap at; the process of invention is not represented in any training data we have access to.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK|2 years ago

We can look at it this way: there are ~1000 chess Grandmasters and one World Champion. It took very short time for AI to go from beating an average GM to beating World Champion.

There are ~1000 MO winners and 1 (one) Millenial problem solver ...