Absolutely. 15 years ago I could reasonably trust forecasts regarding whether it’s going to rain in a given location 2 days in advance. Today I can’t trust forecasts about whether it’s raining currently.
I think that is a change in definition. 15 years ago it was only rain if you were sure to get drenched. Now rain means 1mm of water hit the ground in your general vicinity. I blame an abundance of data combined people who refuse to get damp and need an umbrella if there is any chance at all.
It seems unlikely that the modelling and forecasting has become worse, so I guess there is some sort of change happening to the climate making it more unstable and less predictable?
>I guess there is some sort of change happening to the climate making it more unstable and less predictable?
I've been seeing this question come up a lot lately. The answer is no, weather forecasting continues to improve. The rate is about 1 day improvement every 10 years so a 5 day forecast today is as good as a 4 day forecast 10 years ago.
LexGray|2 years ago
yakubin|2 years ago
Smoosh|2 years ago
lispisok|2 years ago
I've been seeing this question come up a lot lately. The answer is no, weather forecasting continues to improve. The rate is about 1 day improvement every 10 years so a 5 day forecast today is as good as a 4 day forecast 10 years ago.