I'm wondering the same, but for the narrower white collar subset of tech workers, what will today's UX/UI designer or API developer be doing in 5-10 years.
Once the context window becomes large enough to swallow up the codebase of a small-mid sized company, what do all those IT workers that perform below the 50th percentile in coding tests even do?
HN has a blind spot about this because a lot of people here are in the top %ile of programmers. But the bottom 50th percentile are already being outperformed by GPT-4. Org structures and even GPT-4 availability hasn't caught up, but I can't see any situation where these workers aren't replaced en masse by AI, especially if the AI is 10% of the cost and doesn't come with the "baggage" of dealing with humans.
> Once the context window becomes large enough to swallow up the codebase of a small-mid sized company, what do all those IT workers that perform below the 50th percentile in coding tests even do?
There's a whole lot of work in tech (even specifically work "done by software developers") that isn't "banging out code to already completed specs".
UX/UI designers will use AI as part of their jobs. They'll be able to work at a higher level and focus less on boilerplate. That might mean fewer UX/UI jobs, but more likely the standard for app UX will go up. Companies are always going to want to differentiate their apps.
It's like how, in 2003, if your restaurant had a website with a phone number posted on it, you were ahead of the curve. Today, if your restaurant doesn't have a website with online ordering, you're going to miss out on potential customers.
API developers will largely find something else to do. I've never seen a job posting for an API developer. My intuition is that even today, the number of people who work specifically as an API developer for their whole career is pretty close to zero.
Today, your restaurant's custom website largely doesn't matter, as ordering is done on delivery apps, and people visiting in person look at things like Google Maps reviews. Only reservations are not quite as consolidated yet.
Similarly, in the future, there may be no more "apps" in the way we understand them today, or they may become completely irrelevant if everything can be handled by one general-purpose assistant.
Except this is the first time we have a new "generalist" technology. When Photoshop was released, it didn't reduce employment opportunities for writers, coders, 3D designers, etc.
We're in truly unprecedented territory and don't really have an historical analogue to learn from.
Exactly. When the train really gets rolling, us humans shouldn't eschew the value of being able to interact with the intelligences. For such quaint problems we'll have, it probably costs close to 0 effort to answer a question or two.
I'm picturing something like as an intreraction I'd like to have:
"Hey, do you mind listening to this song I made? I want to play it live, but am curious if there's any spots with frequencies that will be downright dangerous when played live at 100-110dB. I'm also curious if there's any spots that traditionally have been HATED by audiences, that I'm not aware of."
"Yeah, the song's pretty good! You do a weird thing in the middle with an A7 chord. It might not go over the best, but it's your call. The waves at 21k Hz need to go though. Those WILL damage someones ears."
"Ok, thanks a lot. By the way, if you need anything from me; just ask."
spaceman_2020|2 years ago
HN has a blind spot about this because a lot of people here are in the top %ile of programmers. But the bottom 50th percentile are already being outperformed by GPT-4. Org structures and even GPT-4 availability hasn't caught up, but I can't see any situation where these workers aren't replaced en masse by AI, especially if the AI is 10% of the cost and doesn't come with the "baggage" of dealing with humans.
I don't think our society is prepared.
dragonwriter|2 years ago
There's a whole lot of work in tech (even specifically work "done by software developers") that isn't "banging out code to already completed specs".
josho|2 years ago
Look at how much more graphic design is starting to happen now that you can create an image in a few minutes.
So it means we’ll get more development projects because they’ll be cheaper.
And yes I do realize at some point we’ll still have a mass of unemployed skilled white collar workers like devs.
beepbooptheory|2 years ago
post-it|2 years ago
It's like how, in 2003, if your restaurant had a website with a phone number posted on it, you were ahead of the curve. Today, if your restaurant doesn't have a website with online ordering, you're going to miss out on potential customers.
API developers will largely find something else to do. I've never seen a job posting for an API developer. My intuition is that even today, the number of people who work specifically as an API developer for their whole career is pretty close to zero.
realharo|2 years ago
Similarly, in the future, there may be no more "apps" in the way we understand them today, or they may become completely irrelevant if everything can be handled by one general-purpose assistant.
jboy55|2 years ago
spaceman_2020|2 years ago
We're in truly unprecedented territory and don't really have an historical analogue to learn from.
bigyikes|2 years ago
Photoshop doesn’t take photographs, so of course it hasn’t displaced photographers. It replaced the “shop” but the “photo” was up to the artist.
The irony is, Photoshop can generate photos now, and when it gets better, it actually will displace photographers.
butlike|2 years ago
I'm picturing something like as an intreraction I'd like to have:
"Hey, do you mind listening to this song I made? I want to play it live, but am curious if there's any spots with frequencies that will be downright dangerous when played live at 100-110dB. I'm also curious if there's any spots that traditionally have been HATED by audiences, that I'm not aware of."
"Yeah, the song's pretty good! You do a weird thing in the middle with an A7 chord. It might not go over the best, but it's your call. The waves at 21k Hz need to go though. Those WILL damage someones ears."
"Ok, thanks a lot. By the way, if you need anything from me; just ask."