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propercoil | 2 years ago

The mark for the end of the British empire was said to have happen when they lost control of the Suez canal. Iran is testing if this is the end of the U.S hegemony.

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creato|2 years ago

The Suez canal is a trade route for Europe and Asia for the most part. If this is a test of US hegemony, if anything that is a reminder of just how much Europe and China rely on the US.

sudosysgen|2 years ago

China has good enough relations with Iran that they aren't really going to be threatened durably here.

sokoloff|2 years ago

It seems extraordinarily unlikely that the inevitable fall of the US hegemony will be at the hands of present-day Iran.

philwelch|2 years ago

The fall of US hegemony is much more likely going to be the result of the US government abdicating its responsibilities to the world than the result of some other hegemon materially overcoming the US. This is as good an opportunity as any for that to happen.

wolverine876|2 years ago

I'm not sure about that. An invasion of Iran could cause significant budgetary and institutional harm, as well as destroying trust in the US's leadership position in the world and in the rules-based international order on which international US power depends.

Iran would be the most powerful foe since WWII (perhaps not counting China's involvement in the Korean War, but afaik China's only power then was masses of soldiers). They are more wealthy, more populous, and more politically, economically, and militarily capable than Iraq and Afghanistan combined - possibly more than all foes since WWII combined. Geographically, they are mostly mountains, especially along their coast [0]. They have been preparing for generations to fight off the US.

After Vietnam the US military was a mess for many years, arguably until the Gulf War. Also, weakness creates a negative reinforcement loop: When enemies and competitors see the US weakened or just consumed with a problem, they will make moves that worsen the US's situation.

(Just look at this map of Iranian topography:)

[0] https://www.glimpsefromtheglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/...