The article doesn't mention that new building construction has almost halted in many European markets. I would assume that to play a much larger role than the reasons presented in the article.
It also doesn't help that, at least here, prices are higher and delays are longer because of high demand and low supply, especially on the side of the craftspeople who install heatpumps. That, combined with an overloaded power grid, isn't helping adoption much.
You can't "just" install a heatpump like you install a TV, these figures are more complex than just "people aren't buying them".
Of course the heat pump industry, which is the source of the data indicating a collapse, would prefer to maintain the huge growth the invasion into Ukraine and the subsequent changes in fossil fuel prices have brought to the sector. However, I suspect sales may fall back to pre-war levels, which is still a sizeable industry, and that the recent boom was an abnormality rather than an indicator of consumer interest.
Makes sense. In our new neighborhood in North America every single house got a heat pump by default. If housing starts drop that would significant affect sales.
They're more expensive than a new gas boiler, more expensive to run than gas heating (due to low gas prices), they often need upgrades to the entire home heating system and there's a cost of living crisis across Europe. It's not really a surprise.
Are low gas prices due to subsidized gas? They were supposed to be very high due to the German-corruption-made dependence on Russian gas, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
There was a distinct pressure to invest in electric heat pumps because the prices for fossil fuels were so insane. Now the prices have normalized and suddenly paying what you were used to sounds more attractive than spending tens of thousands of Euros on top of the electric bill.
Where do you get your numbers from? Right now, pre heat pump, I'm at 2000kWh usage and return to the net 4000kWh (so 2000kWh in excess). I use 750m3 of gas.
This costs me 100e per month.
I'm investing in a full electric ground source heat pump. Which cost me 20k. An alternative is a air heatpump which is around 8k, but with a lower scop.
Let's assume a scop of 5 (air-air) which is conservative. The amount of energy required for heating / showering / cooking was 750 * 9.27 = 6952.5 kWh. Dividing this by the scop of 5 means I require 1390.5 kWh to replace gas. This means I still have excess of solar kWh.
For now I can use the grid as a battery. This means I have no electricity costs - I actually get 20e per month after taxes.
So for 8k I have nullified my gas and electric bill. This means a payback period of 5.5 years (8000/120/12) or a yield of 18% (120/8000 * 100*12) per year.
So it isn't required to have tens of thousands to invest and you get a positive yield (depending the tax climate) even with current gas prices.
The 20k ground source heat pump looks a bit different. But I like that it is quiet and it can cool in summer for less energy that an air-air one.*
Well, even today, using heat pumps is cheaper on the long run (like on a 10 year horizont). Especially if you have solar on your roof and can use your own solar electricy, at least partially.
Besides the "big heat pump" outside that sometimes needs changes to the house (like installing underfloor heating) people are now starting to use normal split-AC devices with a SCOP of 3 or better for heating. That's even cheaper.
So I googled, and it seems that sales have increased every year from 2005 to 2022, but sales in 2023 will be only slightly higher than those in 2021. "Collapse" doesn't seem quite right.
The cost of electricity in most of Europe is prohibitive, all things and fees considered I'm sitting at €0.50/kWh. Furthermore, most homes are allotted 3kW, upgradeable to 6kW for a fixed one-time fee, and perpetual fees in the monthly bill.
The recent (2021) AC unit with a heat pump in this apartment draws 0.75 to 1.1kW. That means for every hour I'm using it I'm paying about €0.50, and I can't turn on neither the dishwasher, nor the washing machine, nor the oven while it's running. Maybe I can use the hairdryer but even that might trip the breaker if the wrong combination of lights, TV and fridge happens.
Electricity is scarce and expensive in Europe, gas isn't. I appreciate how efficient and more sustainable heat pumps are but money doesn't grow on trees.
> Furthermore, most homes are allotted 3kW, upgradeable to 6kW for a fixed one-time fee, and perpetual fees in the monthly bill.
Are you sure of those numbers?
3kW is the max capacity of a single socket (at least in the UK). My electric shower is 10kW and electric hobs/cookers also need higher ratings than standard sockets. Here in the UK I believe that the standard domestic capacity is 100A per home (so about 24kW).
You’re making generalisations about Europe that just don’t make sense. There are plenty of countries/regions in Europe where electricity is more readily available.
You can’t even generalise about a single country. North Germany has a lot more renewable electricity than South Germany.
Is the AC power consumption you’re citing for summer or winter? Seems crazy high for winter in Italy (if that’s where you’re from ref your other comment). Our home in Norway uses about that much right now in mid winter.
I guess the apartment might not be well insulated? That’s another problem countries in Europe need to work on. It’s insane to waste energy due to insufficient insulation. Energy, especially fossil energy, is not going to get more plentiful any time soon. If you don’t invest in energy saving measures soon you’ll be screwed eventually.
I live in a top top US state and pay <$0.10/kWh for unlimited electricity and can get down to 7 cents if I sign up for alternate times and special programs.
I used over 1,000kWh last month.
I’m trying to figure out if my future is 5x energy prices or there’s just a huge structural difference that makes one country’s energy infrastructure vastly superior.
No more cheap Russian energy. In place, expensive nordic and American energy. It is basically active self-sabotaging by European leaders. Not only heat pumps, a lot of businesses bankrupt. You can ask any Germans friends how bad German economy is and next couple of years. Some even wish to move to Indonesia or Eastern Asia side to look for jobs. Heat pump sale is just minuscule to all other collapsing sales there. Meanwhile the business contacts I know in Moscow and Petersburg having historic bonuses and pay increases. Meanwhile, UK and German tax payers still facing new taxes and subsidies cuts as I type this. Look on the bright side, look for military complex jobs. I see they are hiring.
In Northern Europe heatpumps are simply not effective (yet). Heating at colder nights means heating with electricity, where gas is 1/3 of the electricity price. 100s of stories of people who converted to heat pumps (being oversold with less then perfect home insulations) and who are disapointed financialy.
This is not my own experience nor the experience of every other homeowner I know in my corner of rural Sweden (and it's a popular discussion topic). I don't know of a single disappointment story, nor is it a thing in the local media.
Heat pumps are very cost effective and me and most other homeowners I know have, over the last couple of decades, completely migrated from wood to heat pumps. In fact, there might not be that many homes who'd convert left to convert.
The House construction locally has definitely tanked this last year. Much fewer projects.
They are massively popular in Finland, so clearly they work in the Northern Europe. Gas isn't even a competitor there, the other main option is district heating. Basically all other forms (mainly oil, direct electric heating) are on their way out.
>In Northern Europe heatpumps are simply not effective (yet).
That's not what I've heard of even air, but to be clear, you are talking air source right? I'm near the Canadian border in northern New England and am getting ready at work to have another vertical ground source (geothermal) heat pump put in, and those are very effective year round. Well loop is around 515' (~155m), which is on the longer side but not a big deal by well drilling standards (which is why lots of well drilling companies have been expanding into heat pumps in the last 5 years and availability has sky rocketed). The price is definitely much higher than air source for now, maybe always will carry some premium, but the major government incentives here help significantly and of course the reliability is high. There are a few minor other bonuses as well I guess, like aesthetically speaking once done there can be nothing to near nothing visible outside.
There are a few other strategies (horizontal ground, water source, semi-open) that some are looking at too but around here simple vertical closed looks likely to end up as the majority due to economies of scale, it can be done anywhere vs needing more/special land, and like I said leverages an existing industry. It's neat to see coming along, so perhaps longer term that'll offer an option in Northern Europe too.
In the UK it's more pronounced. I pay £0.28/kWh for electricity and £0.069/kWh for gas, so as I understand it installing a heat pump will end up increasing my energy bills unless its coefficient of performance is over 4.
[+] [-] distances|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jeroenhd|2 years ago|reply
You can't "just" install a heatpump like you install a TV, these figures are more complex than just "people aren't buying them".
The apparent data source (https://www.ehpa.org/news-and-resources/press-releases/heat-...) seems to indicate that sales are dropping especially in Finland and Denmark. Which is interesting, because Finland seems to be market leader in this stuff: https://yle.fi/a/74-20049437
What this graph also doesn't show, is the huge spike in sales that 2022, the year have been taken as a basis, was compared to previous years: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-heat-pumps-became...
Of course the heat pump industry, which is the source of the data indicating a collapse, would prefer to maintain the huge growth the invasion into Ukraine and the subsequent changes in fossil fuel prices have brought to the sector. However, I suspect sales may fall back to pre-war levels, which is still a sizeable industry, and that the recent boom was an abnormality rather than an indicator of consumer interest.
[+] [-] bhouston|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MilaM|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] teamonkey|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] theshrike79|2 years ago|reply
Nordics don't use gas for non-industrial purposes at all, and even industrial ones are rare now that the Russian pipelines are shut down.
[+] [-] immibis|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] r0ckarong|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] smooc|2 years ago|reply
This costs me 100e per month.
I'm investing in a full electric ground source heat pump. Which cost me 20k. An alternative is a air heatpump which is around 8k, but with a lower scop.
Let's assume a scop of 5 (air-air) which is conservative. The amount of energy required for heating / showering / cooking was 750 * 9.27 = 6952.5 kWh. Dividing this by the scop of 5 means I require 1390.5 kWh to replace gas. This means I still have excess of solar kWh.
For now I can use the grid as a battery. This means I have no electricity costs - I actually get 20e per month after taxes.
So for 8k I have nullified my gas and electric bill. This means a payback period of 5.5 years (8000/120/12) or a yield of 18% (120/8000 * 100*12) per year.
So it isn't required to have tens of thousands to invest and you get a positive yield (depending the tax climate) even with current gas prices.
The 20k ground source heat pump looks a bit different. But I like that it is quiet and it can cool in summer for less energy that an air-air one.*
[+] [-] holgerschurig|2 years ago|reply
Besides the "big heat pump" outside that sometimes needs changes to the house (like installing underfloor heating) people are now starting to use normal split-AC devices with a SCOP of 3 or better for heating. That's even cheaper.
[+] [-] mytailorisrich|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Arnt|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] eur0pa|2 years ago|reply
The recent (2021) AC unit with a heat pump in this apartment draws 0.75 to 1.1kW. That means for every hour I'm using it I'm paying about €0.50, and I can't turn on neither the dishwasher, nor the washing machine, nor the oven while it's running. Maybe I can use the hairdryer but even that might trip the breaker if the wrong combination of lights, TV and fridge happens.
Electricity is scarce and expensive in Europe, gas isn't. I appreciate how efficient and more sustainable heat pumps are but money doesn't grow on trees.
[+] [-] mytailorisrich|2 years ago|reply
Are you sure of those numbers?
3kW is the max capacity of a single socket (at least in the UK). My electric shower is 10kW and electric hobs/cookers also need higher ratings than standard sockets. Here in the UK I believe that the standard domestic capacity is 100A per home (so about 24kW).
[+] [-] audunw|2 years ago|reply
You can’t even generalise about a single country. North Germany has a lot more renewable electricity than South Germany.
Is the AC power consumption you’re citing for summer or winter? Seems crazy high for winter in Italy (if that’s where you’re from ref your other comment). Our home in Norway uses about that much right now in mid winter.
I guess the apartment might not be well insulated? That’s another problem countries in Europe need to work on. It’s insane to waste energy due to insufficient insulation. Energy, especially fossil energy, is not going to get more plentiful any time soon. If you don’t invest in energy saving measures soon you’ll be screwed eventually.
[+] [-] prepend|2 years ago|reply
I live in a top top US state and pay <$0.10/kWh for unlimited electricity and can get down to 7 cents if I sign up for alternate times and special programs.
I used over 1,000kWh last month.
I’m trying to figure out if my future is 5x energy prices or there’s just a huge structural difference that makes one country’s energy infrastructure vastly superior.
[+] [-] Dolototo|2 years ago|reply
France has cheap energy and a lot of electric heating.
Guess for whom a heat pump might be the next best thing?
Yeah French people.
[+] [-] altals2023|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chewz|2 years ago|reply
Southern Europe is different story.
[+] [-] willvarfar|2 years ago|reply
Heat pumps are very cost effective and me and most other homeowners I know have, over the last couple of decades, completely migrated from wood to heat pumps. In fact, there might not be that many homes who'd convert left to convert.
The House construction locally has definitely tanked this last year. Much fewer projects.
[+] [-] bad_alloc|2 years ago|reply
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/10/30/do-heat-pumps-work...
[+] [-] distances|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] xoa|2 years ago|reply
That's not what I've heard of even air, but to be clear, you are talking air source right? I'm near the Canadian border in northern New England and am getting ready at work to have another vertical ground source (geothermal) heat pump put in, and those are very effective year round. Well loop is around 515' (~155m), which is on the longer side but not a big deal by well drilling standards (which is why lots of well drilling companies have been expanding into heat pumps in the last 5 years and availability has sky rocketed). The price is definitely much higher than air source for now, maybe always will carry some premium, but the major government incentives here help significantly and of course the reliability is high. There are a few minor other bonuses as well I guess, like aesthetically speaking once done there can be nothing to near nothing visible outside.
There are a few other strategies (horizontal ground, water source, semi-open) that some are looking at too but around here simple vertical closed looks likely to end up as the majority due to economies of scale, it can be done anywhere vs needing more/special land, and like I said leverages an existing industry. It's neat to see coming along, so perhaps longer term that'll offer an option in Northern Europe too.
[+] [-] zelos|2 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|2 years ago|reply
[deleted]