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The changing face of post-pandemic New York City

148 points| geox | 2 years ago |osc.ny.gov

353 comments

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[+] dang|2 years ago|reply
Submitters: "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." - https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

(Submitted title was "New York City population declined by 5.3% since 2020". )

If you want to say what you think is important about an article, that's fine, but do it by adding a comment to the thread. Then your view will be on a level playing field with everyone else's: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...

[+] luxurytent|2 years ago|reply
Cities are amazingly resilient and it feels like every generation has a moment in which the city largest and most local to them is having a revival. Seems most large metros are going through some post-COVID pains: Increase in crime, extreme high cost of living, etc.

New York will, like always, come back.

But! The benefit to our mid size cities is great. We need these mid size cities to grow, and from my understanding, they have! Larger mid size cities mean a better national network for travel, more opportunities for jobs, growth, and movement of people/families. I'm here for all that.

[+] asdajksah2123|2 years ago|reply
What these numbers show is that all the stuff people claim about NYC is backwards.

1. These declines are until mid 2022. NYC's population has rebounded since then big time. 2. No, it's not crime deterring people. Crime is heading back close to historic lows. It's cost of living that's deterring people. 3. Rich people are moving in/staying/people in NYC are getting richer. It's the poor who cannot afford to live in NYC that are leaving.

[+] eatonphil|2 years ago|reply
It seems worth looking into what section of the population (either in terms of age or marital status or number of children or education or salary or whatnot) is moving out of NYC. For example, NYC still ranks at the top of where college graduates apply to [0].

[0] https://joinhandshake.com/blog/employers/where-are-college-s...

[+] chrisco255|2 years ago|reply
This is mostly a function of population size for a city. NYC is by far the largest city so it makes sense they would also be among the cities getting the most applicants. You'd have to do a trend or growth rate analysis to see what's happening.
[+] peyton|2 years ago|reply
The comptroller’s report makes it look more like white flight. Especially figure 6.
[+] belligeront|2 years ago|reply
Many people are reading this stat to say that NYC is dying because of post-covid crime or some other stat. I really think this is a misreading of the situation.

I think it is far likely composition effects from: - High-income people who work remote or hybrid started demanding more space for work and living. Given NYC housing is basically fixed (there is almost no building), this trend has decreased the average number of people per housing unit. - As the article notes, "the city’s populace is overall older and wealthier": wealthier people use more housing per person and tend to have fewer children.

[+] ghaff|2 years ago|reply
I'm not sure what the answer is but I'm also not sure why the downvotes.

There are absolutely tradeoffs involved in living in a big city, maybe especially NYC. You might still choose to do so absent any specific work-related reason but no one can seriously suggest that taking a daily commute off the table couldn't seriously change the decision someone makes about where they live.

[+] locopati|2 years ago|reply
moved out in 2018 after 18 years because i worked remotely and my mental health was frazzled. for much less rent, i ended up in a Catskills cabin in the woods by a stream, a short drive from any number of beautiful trails. bonus points for the luck of already being out of the city when the pandemic happened.
[+] bryanlarsen|2 years ago|reply
Does anybody have the stats for the metro area rather than just the city?
[+] Projectiboga|2 years ago|reply
I think it's just less 'taxpayers'. I suspect there are numerous 'digital nomads' coming and going. The middle class is fleeing, and retail vacancies are expanding.
[+] action-k|2 years ago|reply
It is interesting to see which counties the population change has come from. My prior would have been that Manhattan (i.e. "New York County") has dropped a lot, while Queens and especially Kings County (i.e. Brooklyn) maybe even grew. But the data shows all counties (excl Staten Island / Richmond County) dropping ~5% over 2 years. HOWEVER... in Manhattan all that drop happened in 2021 and population actually grew ~1.5% in 2022... while in counties kept dropping ~2%/year. Certainly feels like that in Manhattan today...
[+] throwitaway222|2 years ago|reply
Where did they move? (FL?)
[+] airstrike|2 years ago|reply
According to latest data from the U.S. Census, Florida ranks #1 in total net migration, which measures the difference between the number of people moving in and the number of people moving out of a state. From July 2021-July 2022, nearly 444,500 people moved to Florida, which compared to the previous year was a gain of 185,000, the largest year-over-year impact of residents moving.

Florida also ranked #1 in domestic migration, #2 in international migration, and #1 with the most people moving in per day at 1,218. Texas followed Florida in both total net migration (349,575) and most people moving in per day (958). Florida’s total population has reached more than 22.2 million and sits third in the nation behind California and Texas, previously surpassing New York.

New York and California, two of the biggest markets to the South and South-Central regions, experienced the largest out migration, followed by Illinois.

https://tampabayedc.com/news/how-many-people-moved-to-florid...

[+] bgribble|2 years ago|reply
In my anecdotal experience, there is a sizable chunk of people who stayed within a couple of hours drive of the city but moved farther out to save money. Towns up the Hudson Valley, Westchester, "Greater Woodstock", Long Island, Conn/Mass/NJ.

If the only reason you are paying all that rent money for that tiny apartment is so you can take the subway to work, and you can work from Yonkers over Zoom just as well, why not?

[+] PedroBatista|2 years ago|reply
Everywhere and also depending on the circumstances.

People who could, bought a house in Florida, New Jersey also the Carolinas, some in Texas. Also many people just "went back home", that happens every year since NYC is a popular destination but also grinds people left and right. If you're average middle class and need to have a "normal" job to make a living, NYC is not only unfair but also straight up abusive.

That's why a large group of employed people and business owners also left, not only the unemployed.

[+] misiti3780|2 years ago|reply
I moved from Brooklyn to Miami. Mostly because I had a child IMO NYC is not a good place to raise a kid.
[+] GordonS|2 years ago|reply
What's the big draw with Florida?
[+] Log_out_|2 years ago|reply
Good things the price of accommodation followed that trend.
[+] esoterica|2 years ago|reply
New York’s population did not decline by 5%. The population estimates between censuses always undercounts New York relative to the actual census. The last population estimate for NYS before the 2020 census had the state’s population being flat relative to 2010 and it ended up being up more than 800k in the real census. Same thing is happening AGAIN here.

https://policybynumbers.com/a-caution-about-the-use-of-censu...

[+] lo_zamoyski|2 years ago|reply
How much of the "Rebound of International Immigration" is the result of migrants being bussed to New York from the southern border?
[+] mancerayder|2 years ago|reply
The crime question of NYC is incredibly controversial, and a consensus is that crime is barely up, and where it's up, it's pandemic-related and back to "historical norms".

There are two ways to gather crime stats: NYPD reporting them, surveys.

Here's a problem with the former: the stats are easy to game: how people are charged, which crimes are responded to, and which reports are taken are all subject to adjustments. Anyone who's tried to get the police to file a report knows: you need to sometimes persuade.

Then you have the DA. In Manhattan, Alvin Bragg was elected on a platform of de-incarceration. That means that he believes the 'carceral system' disproportionately punishes the poor and POC and further tears them from their communities. In his Day 1 essay, he outlines what he did: look the other way at property crimes such as shoplifting, and low level muggings and the like. He won't charge, and the police aren't going to stick their necks out for a suspect that's not getting punished (charges dropped or declined to prosecute).

I'm happy to pull some stats from articles I saved that prove this. I saved them because it's incredibly unpopular (it's viewed as a 'right wing talking point' historically which renders it false prima facie). I can tell you anecdotally the aggression is something I haven't seen ever, mostly from vagrant types that live in stations and live a life of freedom to punch, smoke, defecate and worse. I know of physical assaults in mid town I hadn't heard about in decades, and I've seen hairy situations during rush hour that haven't existed in my entire time here.

Are people fleeing? That's an easier debate. The city has a cycling in of students, new grads and internationals, and a cycling out of marrieds, and the terminally fed-up with communal living and loud crowded commutes.

But the city won't die.

[+] om154|2 years ago|reply
I want to see this for San Francisco. And, for every other U.S. city!
[+] eduction|2 years ago|reply
The comments here are funny. You have a bunch of people saying folks are fleeing NYC due to crime. Then other people saying folks are fleeing due to housing shortage and rents going up. It's like the old restaurant line, "no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded."

Keep in mind, crime has risen for each of three years through 2022, and while that trend is worrisome, the actual number of crimes is only back up to 2006 levels. https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/histori... That's not a year known as "the bad old days" or particularly dangerous, though you can certainly write the alarming headline, "highest crime in 16 years." (FWIW indications are the trend reversed this year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-06/nyc-crime...)

The population decline coincides with the pandemic and remote work, and from my own personal experience here that's a much bigger driver of people leaving. Many people fled to their vacation homes and never came back, other people bought new places upstate and moved.

Like all cities, but probably more than most, NYC is at an inflection point where it's figuring out what its future looks like as work habits change. The offices won't all fill back up but aren't easily converted to housing. And frankly NYC's industries, though dynamic and high end, continue to face tech disruption, and Silicon Valley only has more economic strength every year.

So there could be even more population loss. Rents seem to be softening. There could absolutely be a down period here, economically and otherwise. But if you look back at the history of the city, these have been the most fertile times culturally. Crime in the 70s and 80s went hand in hand with punk rock in LES, art scene in SoHo, independent film wave, birth of hip hop. There were some actual businesses that came out of all that. I don't want NYC to become that bad again, it's not good for the people who live here, but if there is a lull as the city figures out what it is, there will be a silver lining.

[+] shin_lao|2 years ago|reply
More taxes. Less service.

Everything is outrageously expensive.

Middle class gets crushed.

If you've wealthy, no point in having your main residence in NYC (see, more taxes).

Will get worse before it gets better.

[+] levelz|2 years ago|reply
> Everything is outrageously expensive > Middle class gets crushed

I moved out of New York City in 2020. The overriding reason was not this, it was just a fluke that I got a very compelling out of state job offer in 2019, and they requested I move in 2020.

However, I am making about about $150-$160k as an SWE, and it goes a lot further here (although having to spend $700-$800 a month for a car, which I did not have to do in NYC, bites into that a little). I have a new, big, apartment with a front door to a tree-lined street in a nice walkable neighborhood near my workplace for less than $2000 a month. In New York I would have an older, smaller apartment on a higher floor in not as nice of a neighborhood for more a month.

I know people say to move to the Bay area because that's where the action is for tech jobs and where you make connections etc., but I don't see why not take a step on a way for a decent paying job in a cheap city where you can accumulate savings while your skillset is increasing.

The juniors/associates I work with making <$100k a year say they can barely afford their expenses now here. I don't know what they'd be doing in the Bay Area or New York. They have roommates too.

I saved up a ton of money down here, and gained experience as well. If I move back to New York (or to the Bay Area), I do so on surer footing - I have a lot of money saved up for a rainy day now.

It also makes for a situation where those with lower income - even associate/junior SWEs at Fortune 100 companies - can't afford to live in cities like NYC, San Francisco etc.

[+] airstrike|2 years ago|reply
This is it in a nutshell. And I don't see anything that points to those trends reversing in a meaningful way long term.
[+] steveBK123|2 years ago|reply
Yes a lot of people you think of as "NYers" are.. not, for tax purposes.

Most famous people you know have enough flexibility that they can be in their West coast / Florida / Mountains / Beach / Westport / Greenwich / Short Hills / etc home 183+ days per year.

[+] jeffbee|2 years ago|reply
Instead of regurgitating your priors you could have simply read the article.
[+] cglan|2 years ago|reply
I live in NYC. The problem is that there’s literally 0 housing. That’s it.

Literally so many people want to move here, but you look on all of streeteasy on a given day and there’s like 500 apartments. In a city of millions.

Sure you can pay more and get something. But it used to be that you traded a lot of quality of life (in unit washer dryer, dishwasher, ac, no walkups, cars, space, etc) for a lower price and the social aspects of living in a city. People don’t believe it, but cities used to be cheap. Now you literally pay more for less in all respects especially during Covid. As the prices have been spiraling up, you also get demographic shifts of only rich people or literally homeless shitting on the streets so you lose the cultural elements of having a diverse income unless you go deep into Brooklyn.

I’m not arguing that NYC is not fun still. It’s still great. But without housing for a semi normal price (I can’t even get a place with a dishwasher for less than 2.5k in most areas), and a lot of it, the trade off for living in nyc is making less and less sense.

[+] jjulius|2 years ago|reply
>I live in NYC. The problem is that there’s literally 0 housing. That’s it.

>Literally so many people want to move here, but you look on all of streeteasy on a given day and there’s like 500 apartments. In a cities of millions.

I'm currently in my mid-30's. Throughout all of my 20's, I thought it would be a blast to live in NYC. Then I had a good stretch where I visited it a whole bunch of times, hanging out with friends and family who lived there, and you know what I noticed? Unless you were an older family member who owned a home/apartment, every younger person was renting and the topic of conversation among locals, both locals who knew each other and locals who just met one another, was about where they're living, how much their rent is, what kind of battle they had to go through to get the place, what kind of battles their friends went through to get their places, and then they'd compare the different amenities they had or didn't have. I watched these same conversations - some of which were told like war stories - play out again and again and again and again.

Then, you get into the whole issue of bed bugs, how prevalent they are in NYC and how much of a nightmare it is to deal with them, and you realize that life in NYC is largely spent just trying to figure out how to have a place to live, and it suddenly feels incredibly stupid to bother to try and move there. The nightlife and entertainment and culture, as cool as they are, just aren't worth it if you're constantly hassling with such a basic need.

But that's just me. /shrug

[+] pclmulqdq|2 years ago|reply
When people (including myself) talk about New York not being fun any more, it's almost always in relation to the price. Rent is incredibly expensive at this point, and that drives up the price of literally everything else, too. New Yorkers also don't understand that the "tier 2" cities in the US actually have most/all of the food, culture, and activities that they think are exclusive to New York.

On the other hand, lots of New York evangelists in 2023 are lifers who have locked in their rent-stabilized apartment rates 20 years ago, and enjoy all the amenities that (largely) the rest of us are supposed to pay for.

[+] 4death4|2 years ago|reply
This would make sense if the population growth was increasing but at a slower rate. But, the population is actively declining. Somehow, 5.3% of people went from having housing to leaving, so I don’t think housing is the only story here.
[+] necrotic_comp|2 years ago|reply
This is true. It's so depressing to have your salary and responsibility go up, but still have the same living circumstances as you did when you had your first job out of college.

I still don't have a laundry machine or a thermostat, I have holes in my walls from when my landlord half-did things, my rent has gone up, and I'm expected to continue to do more and get more responsibility.

Something's gotta give. I'm not sure what it's gonna be.

[+] NickM|2 years ago|reply
People don’t believe it, but cities used to be cheap.

I wasn't really aware of this, but was just wondering about it the other day, as it seems like logically they should be cheaper; economies of scale ought to help for both housing and infrastructure, I would think. Interesting to hear that expensive cities aren't necessarily inevitable.

[+] doctorpangloss|2 years ago|reply
> Sure you can pay more and get something. But it used to be that you traded a lot of quality of life (in unit washer dryer, dishwasher, ac, no walkups, cars, space, etc) for a lower price and the social aspects of living in a city.

On the other hand, if "every" landlord "just" asks for more, what the fuck is anyone going to do about it?

[+] randomdata|2 years ago|reply
Given that the population declined, without much evidence of housing being destroyed en-mass, it seems the problem is actually that people weren't coupling up during COVID – presumably because dating is hard during pandemic lockdowns and distancing measures – leaving more single people trying to find their own places. Those singles finding out there there is no longer enough housing for them is just a side effect.
[+] crowcroft|2 years ago|reply
Interesting, is the housing supply decreasing at all, or are those houses sitting empty for long?

If those houses are sitting empty for weeks then maybe there's going to be a bit of a correction (hard to imagine rent ever going down in NY though).

If those houses aren't sitting empty for long, then maybe NY is going through a lot of churn. Will be interesting to see how NY changes over the next few years.

[+] ThomPete|2 years ago|reply
Agree.

Food wise it's wild too. What used to be the price of an entres is now the price of an appetizer and the service have gotten down too.

Getting a place you actually want to live 2 bedrooms is at least $4K we pay much more because we live in a nice building.

But it's still a great city and I am sure somethings gotta give.

[+] bequanna|2 years ago|reply
> It’s still great.

I’ve been to NYC many times and have friends in their late 30s that live there. The ones that live there say the same (“it’s great”) but never elaborate.

From the outside, it honestly looks like a dirty, difficult, chaotic city. Many restaurants, but all seem to be copy+paste coffee shop, Italian, etc or very low quality cafe/deli.

Coming from the Midwest, it feels very old, dirty and poor yet somehow expensive and desirable. What am I missing?

[+] unknown|2 years ago|reply

[deleted]

[+] fny|2 years ago|reply
1. Most people rent not buy in NYC. There are plenty of rentals.

2. I’m in the market to buy, and I’ve been able to make bids below asking so I’m not sure demand is as high as you’d suggest.

[+] shortrounddev2|2 years ago|reply
And new york decides the best way to solve this problem is to irrationally ban short term rentals rather than just building more housing