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JaceLightning | 2 years ago

if there is a soft landing... the recession is penciled in for Q3 2024 currently based on yield curve inversions.

discuss

order

margalabargala|2 years ago

And unlike the last eight predicted recessions, this predicted recession might actually happen! On account of it still being in the future.

jerf|2 years ago

Yield curve inversions are not excitable attention-seeking pundits, but an emergent measure of the market as a whole. They are also not 100% accurate... but they're fairly accurate. There are also sensible reasons to believe they are indeed causally connected to some reasonable degree, so it's not throwing chicken livers and reading the future either.

It's best not to conflate actual measures being tentatively interpreted on the basis of a century of history with some guy with a camera and a YouTube channel. They're not even the same category of thing, as pondering that for a moment will show.