[bshipp]

I think the Chinese perspectives of how a war against Taiwan might proceed was dramatically altered after watching Russia get slapped around by Ukraine. I'm convinced it delayed any aggressive move by China against Taiwan by a decade, if not more.

[jltsiren]

There is a theory that the US loses every prolonged conflict by default, because taxpayers eventually lose interest in winning.

China is probably watching the latest developments in US support for Ukraine with great interest. If the support proves insufficient for Ukraine to win, they may conclude that there is no need for a proper invasion of Taiwan. That there is no need for an all-out war. They could just isolate the island, try to shoot down every plane and sink every ship, and take whatever casualties Americans are willing to take. If their navy and air force can match their US counterparts, they just need to spend more and last longer.

[bshipp]

Ukraine is (and will continue to be for decades) a fascinating case study for multiple reasons, but most impressively regarding NATO support. Although headlines detail billions upon billions in spending, the vast majority of those expenditures from the NATO side were for the notional values of stuff that was already just sitting around. This has got to be one if the cheapest conflicts--from a taxpayer perspective--they've ever supported, which is amazing considering the success Ukraine has experienced in bringing Russia's military to its metaphorical knees.

I think China would be far more aggressive with Taiwan if the West hadn't frozen Russia's central bank assets. That single move likely had the biggest impact in curtailing any expansionist dreams.

[rnk]

We've got to make it 10 years from now for demographic change.

Great fictional book about a possible 2024 era war, "2034: A Novel of the Next World War", Novel by Elliot Ackerman and James G. Stavridis. It's much more realistic than other novels. China sinks multiple aircraft carriers, they completely hack the us and turn off the power and telecommunications. Then the shit hits the fan. Maybe a limited nuclear exchange will scare the other side, the us and china start thinking.