[agd]

> Intel (also AMD?) are "stagnated"

Intel are catching up and will likely launch their 20A node before TSMC 2nm. Intel's 20A also includes gate all around and backside power delivery, so I don't think it's accurate to say Intel are 'stagnated' any more.

[mdasen]

According to Intel's schedule, yes. Intel's schedule has 20A coming in Q3 2024.

However, according to Intel's schedule, they've been at Intel 3 since Q3 2023 (and Intel 4 since Q3 2022). The first Intel 4 processors actually launched in December 2024, 17 months after Intel 4 on their roadmap. We've yet to see any Intel 3 processors. I'm not accusing Intel of lying. Their roadmap can be when they've achieved a milestone rather than having it at the scale to start shipping chips. To be realistic about Intel's roadmap, 20A processors are probably coming in December 2025 at the earliest. That is earlier than TSMC's 2nm with gate all around and backside power delivery, but then there's also the question of whether Intel will actually pull it off.

I do like that Intel is recommitted to its fab, but I'd also say that it's too soon for me to believe that Intel will overtake TSMC. Why? Intel 4 is behind TSMC's N5 process in transistor density and Intel has only shipped a single line of processors with it - and they've had to use TSMC's N5 and N6 for the graphics and IO tiles. Basically, Intel has started shipping Intel 4, but not for most of their processors - none of their desktop or datacenter processors are using it.

There is a possibility that Intel will pull it off and I agree that Intel isn't stagnating anymore, but I'm not sure I'd go as far as saying it's "likely" that Intel will overtake TSMC. Yes, TSMC is still struggling to get 3nm beyond Apple. Qualcomm's upcoming 2024 flagship chips are using TSMC N4P. But while Intel has been making progress way faster than it had for a decade, their progress hasn't been as stellar as their marketing of it. Intel 4 doesn't match 5nm transistor density, Intel 3 still seems to be a mystery, and Intel is shipping few Intel 4 processors. Does Intel 20A end up falling between TSMC's N4 and N3P? Does Intel ship one processor at very low volume with 20A in December 2025 and it's late 2026 or even 2027 before they've got all their processors there?

It just the kind of situation where there's a lot of nuance because it doesn't matter what a company has "achieved". It matters what parts you can buy and at what price. I can get Apple products with 3nm, but it looks like Android devices won't be getting 3nm until 2025. That's available, but not to most people. Even if Intel "achieves" 20A: at what volume, at what transistor density?

[trogdor]

>The first Intel 4 processors actually launched in December 2024

I think you meant December 2023