I am aware of that part, yeah. It's a shitty change, one hundred percent, and I'm glad to see folks like Wyden trying to unwind it. At the same time, I've owned small software businesses before, and I've started/not started new ones based on whether I thought it would work out. Where I am unclear is what sorts of business plans, on day zero, would be suddenly nonviable when it was viable before, so suddenly overwhelmingly difficult, as to cause such discouragement.
Is there a good chance of recategorization pushing a very marginal business off the cliff? Sure--that Twitter thread, where there are enough details to read in, has a lot of examples of marginal businesses having trouble (mostly because of not being able to plan in the change, which really sucks). But you don't have that on day zero, and going in with the aim to be that very marginal business is probably not the best of ideas. It's not a day-zero problem, and I am struggling to see where a small business with a business plan that was previously worth executing on is now not worth it because of this change.
It fundamentally changes the cost structure and investment risk profile of business plans without changing anything about the intrinsic economics of the business by requiring much more capital to achieve the same outcome. A perfectly reasonable business plan can suddenly become non-viable if there is a huge new overhead to doing business. Suddenly needing to pay $1M to the IRS on "profit" for a company that is barely making money is rather large change to the financial assumptions that make the business viable.
Affected small businesses suddenly need to increase revenue or cut costs by 20% just to keep their business solvent. Most small businesses do not have the structural elasticity or capital reserves to absorb that, nor do many business plans. In the very long term it notionally all evens out but most small businesses don't survive that long and these large new costs of doing business will reduce the survival rate even further.
Having to amortize salaries mean that a freshly starting company has to include any salaries paid as (software devs salaries)4/5(corporate tax rate) extra thing to budget - if they don't have access to necessary reserves up front, it might be enough to turn a marginal business out from starting at all.
eropple|2 years ago
Is there a good chance of recategorization pushing a very marginal business off the cliff? Sure--that Twitter thread, where there are enough details to read in, has a lot of examples of marginal businesses having trouble (mostly because of not being able to plan in the change, which really sucks). But you don't have that on day zero, and going in with the aim to be that very marginal business is probably not the best of ideas. It's not a day-zero problem, and I am struggling to see where a small business with a business plan that was previously worth executing on is now not worth it because of this change.
jandrewrogers|2 years ago
Affected small businesses suddenly need to increase revenue or cut costs by 20% just to keep their business solvent. Most small businesses do not have the structural elasticity or capital reserves to absorb that, nor do many business plans. In the very long term it notionally all evens out but most small businesses don't survive that long and these large new costs of doing business will reduce the survival rate even further.
pcai|2 years ago
To slightly simplify: it forces startups to pay taxes on profits that only exist on paper, with cash that is now much more scarce
p_l|2 years ago