[kyriefh]

hiya, author here. Palworld is a wild, wild game (think pokemon meets ark:survival evolved, or simply pokemon with guns), and it follows a number of other super-successful indie games that got made with no VC funding. i myself work heavily within the VC ecosystem, so it got me thinking about how games and VC tie together. while the article is written in an opinionated manner, i don't mean to present it as fact - more some musings and steelmanning of why VCs aren't needed

[minimaxir]

Palworld is an extreme lightning in a bottle and is not a consistent model for game development success.

For every Baldur's Gate 3 and Among Us, there are thousands of games that never reach that level of popularity. It's a similar survivorship bias as typical VC.

[TillE]

I've seen a couple people refer to BG3 as if it's some out-of-the-blue success. Larian has a strong history of consistent success, and reached another level by licensing an extremely popular franchise.

Similarly, nearly every AAA franchise game will do very well. Maybe there are some ups and downs, but overall it's boringly predictable. I can absolutely guarantee that GTA6 will be one of the best-selling games of all time.

Among Us is an actual weird indie hit, yes.

[MichaelZuo]

The world's game industry only needs, at most, about 12 'lightning in a bottle's like this per year, so it seems like a perfectly workable model for such a small number.

The existing game studio system can already handle all other established niches in practice.

[raincole]

Palworld's budget is 1 billion yen (6M dollars). If you're willing to invest $6M out of your or your family's pocket yes you don't need VC.

For most people $6M budget means VC.

[nottorp]

Are they even indie or they had a publisher?

[larsiusprime]

Having worked in games for 10+ years, and having recently joined a more traditional VC-backed startup outside of games, I think you are 100% on the money.

The VC model doesn't make a lot of sense for games. So many outsiders come into games thinking they know what they're doing and they learn some hard (and expensive!) lessons fast. Thanks for writing this.

[monero-xmr]

Games are a hit making business, much more similar to movies than to product businesses. Sequels and spinoffs can reduce the risk by leveraging the existing IP and fan base, but it's still a hit making business.

Indie games are more like self-published novels or youtube creators - you are trying to find a core fan base who will support your artistic endeavors. Sometimes they crossover into mainstream, but 99.99% of the time it remains a niche. At best you can earn a liveble wage that grows over many years.

I have seen many VCs dabble in games and they learn their lesson quick. VR / AR / Metaverse attracted a lot of VC investment, all of which is now burned into nothing.

[kyriefh]

thanks for reading and sharing your perspective! i'm arguing against my own interest here as VCs indirectly pay most of my income, but as you also observe the standard playbook doesn't quite seem to copy paste well

[candiddevmike]

Palworld may end up being the first "big" GenAI-based copyright infringement case if Nintendo/Gamefreak decide to pursue it.