Thanks for sharing! I was always wondering how climate scientists were able to identify if an event was due to climate change. Now I have a good reference!
The first slide makes the disclaimer that one is not "able to identify if an event was due to climate change", only likelihoods of certain events occurring under various conditions. People might treat those two things the same due to our mental heuristics, but they are not.
It's true that this method can't say event X was or was not due to condition Y.
But it is fair to say that a pattern of such events that matches (or doesn't) the probabilities given by condition Y is evidence that Y is (or isn't) accurate.
A single heatwave, however anomalous, isn't evidence of anything. Several heatwaves may be ample evidence that one model is more accurate than another.
sidr|2 years ago
avidiax|2 years ago
But it is fair to say that a pattern of such events that matches (or doesn't) the probabilities given by condition Y is evidence that Y is (or isn't) accurate.
A single heatwave, however anomalous, isn't evidence of anything. Several heatwaves may be ample evidence that one model is more accurate than another.