As the author mentions near the end, "Underlying factors like economic development still explain whether or not a country is primed to jump to democracy. (In poorer countries, dictators’ mistakes are more likely to produce another dictator.)" so I think this article would be more appropriately titled "Regime change by mistake".
I guess the author started out in the field of democratization research, but rather than the usual question "What determines whether a regime change leads to democracy?" he ended up investigating "What causes regime change?" It would've been interesting to learn whether particular mistakes are more likely to lead to democratization than others. (Maybe allowing freedom of speech?)
I also think a comparison to non-fatal mistakes is missing. I.e. if you pick any random year and check whether the dictator made a mistake, and the answer is usually yes, then it's unsurprising if you look at the year the dictator was finally deposed and the answer is still yes. Or framed differently, if you notice that the dictator made an obvious mistake, should you prepare for imminent regime change or is it more likely that he'll find a way to stay in power regardless?
yorwba|2 years ago
I guess the author started out in the field of democratization research, but rather than the usual question "What determines whether a regime change leads to democracy?" he ended up investigating "What causes regime change?" It would've been interesting to learn whether particular mistakes are more likely to lead to democratization than others. (Maybe allowing freedom of speech?)
I also think a comparison to non-fatal mistakes is missing. I.e. if you pick any random year and check whether the dictator made a mistake, and the answer is usually yes, then it's unsurprising if you look at the year the dictator was finally deposed and the answer is still yes. Or framed differently, if you notice that the dictator made an obvious mistake, should you prepare for imminent regime change or is it more likely that he'll find a way to stay in power regardless?