[brenschluss]

Here's a scenario:

It's 2030 and deepfakes run rampant. This is a problem creating political deepfakes, celebrity fake porn, CSAM, fake revenge porn, etc.

Apple builds on their Spatial Photo feature, and their newest smartphones allows POR, or Proof of Reality.

Proof of Reality: Data from multiple cameras and a LIDAR sensor are stitched together to generate a 3d depth-map + color map that can validate that a photo or video was shot without post-production manipulation. This processing is done on-chip, on a Secure Enclave-like chip, and cryptographically embedded in the following photo. Each raw capture starts as the first block of a blockchain; further images or videos that are created from this raw data are understood to be downstream of this first block.

A piece of Proof-of-Reality media, edited together with multiple clips or images, can be cryptographically verified that it is composed out of individual Proof-of-Reality media. Like a Merkle tree.

Apple pioneers the first fully Deepfake-proof media workflow. Consumers can watch news media or social media while being cryptographically assured that it wasn't AI-generated.

2031: Proof-Of-Reality (POR) starts to catch on in public. Samsung gets on the bandwagon, and develops their own version (or joins a POR consortium). Soon, 40% of media is POR-validated, following the usual smartphone & OS update statistics.

2032: A particular egregious deepfake scandal from a non-POR source drives the rush towards POR standardization. Apple and/or the POR consortium partners begin to produce more professional-level POR camera equipment. Content blockers that block non-POR media become developed.

2033: Certain social media websites begin to place labels notices on non-POR media. POR-media consists of 70% of all news & social media.

2034: News media companies fully switch over to a POR-workflow. Browsers start adopting non-POR labels for content, like Twitter's 'Community Notes'.

2035: Deepfakes as we know it are mostly hidden from the public eye, but continues to evolve and change in unexpected ways..

[Gunax]

I love it! Though I am not an expert, I can at least see this.

However, I hate to be a nitpicker, but I think this is solving a separate issue. I don't think this issue is about authenticating the legitimacy of deep fake porn. Rather, the mere existence of it is the issue.

That is, people don't care that it's fake. People don't want to buy the Apple proof of reality because they don't want reality.

[brenschluss]

Good point! Then:

2036: Due to increasing amounts of deepfake CSAM, the US's Congress passes a law against unconsensual deepfake porn, requiring "websites of sexual nature" to be POR-compliant or be shut down. Porn web companies, ISPs/hosting providers, and credit card processors alike are legally liable.

Pornhub welcomes this change with cheeky 'PORnhub' branding, but the reality is that change is necessary or they will be sued out of oblivion.

Prosumer platforms like OnlyFans welcome POR-validation with wide arms, because it bolsters their image of authenticity. Exploiting the ban on deepfake porn, "softfake porn", where celebrity look-alikes create porn, becomes mildly popular.

2037: Eventually, ISP / hosting providers / credit card processors that instigate the change. Much like SESTA/FOSTA's impact on sex workers in the early 2020s, payment processors and ISPs refuse to work with POR-unvalidated porn sites. Eventually, porn sites shift towards POR-compliance, and create new niches.

Of course, underground deepfake porn still exists, if you know where to look. But by now, its associated reputation with CSAM makes it very inaccessible and disdained.

Gone are the days of rampant deepfakes in the late 2020s and early 2030s. Mainstream media and politics call this a success, but a minority are angry, saying that deepfakes are a creative act, and the effective ban on POR-noncompliant material is a further restriction on creative liberties. ..

[hanselot]

2030: Deepfakes are rampant, causing significant issues in politics, entertainment, and personal privacy. However, instead of technological solutions, there is a growing trend of regulatory capture. Large corporations and governments begin to argue that deepfakes are an inevitable part of the digital landscape. The cost-effectiveness of creating deepfake content compared to traditional media production becomes a significant talking point.

2031: As deepfake technology becomes more sophisticated and cheaper, it starts to replace traditional media production methods. Major studios and media companies lobby for and receive regulatory approval to use deepfakes as a legitimate form of content creation. This shift is justified by the reduced cost and logistical ease of using AI-generated characters instead of real actors.

2032: A scandal arises involving a particularly damaging deepfake, but instead of driving a push towards authenticity verification technologies, it leads to further normalization of deepfakes. The argument is made that since distinguishing between real and fake content is increasingly difficult, society should adapt to accepting deepfake content as a new norm.

2033: Social media platforms and news outlets begin to openly embrace deepfake technology, citing cost reduction and the ability to generate more engaging content. Traditional media actors and creators are increasingly marginalized, with deepfake creators dominating the market.

2034: Regulatory bodies, heavily influenced by big tech and media conglomerates, begin to actively promote deepfake content. New regulations make it easier for deepfake content to be produced and disseminated, while traditional media production is bogged down by increased costs and regulatory hurdles.

2035: The public gradually accepts deepfakes as the primary form of digital content. Traditional media, with real actors and genuine locations, becomes a niche market due to its higher production costs and complexity. Deepfakes evolve in unexpected ways, permeating every aspect of digital media and blurring the line between reality and AI-generated content.