[NotSuspicious]

> But instead, the majority of the bettors against Biden bet on the astonishing outcome of “Trump wins by 280+ electoral votes.” That, it should be clear, was impossible — it would require results to be overturned not just in states with tight races but also in Democratic bellwethers like California.

That was not impossible at all once you take into account Trump's VP certification plan, which many people understood very early on. A longshot, yes, but certainly not impossible.

If anything, the prediction markets priced in an insurrection better than any pundit I recall watching. To flip it around and call prediction markets "irrational" in this situation is misguided and ignorant of political history.