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DriverDaily | 2 years ago

737 Max is going to end up being one of the safest planes to fly in.

Every inch of every plane combed over, every engineering decision re-examined, every system and sensor double-checked for redundancy and reliability, the pilots alert for any sign of problems.

discuss

order

PedroBatista|2 years ago

We wish..

They should have been doing that since the beginning and it doesn't deserve a medal the same way we don't deserve a medal to do the job we agreed to do.

But I'm not even that optimistic:

- What's the point of combing over the plane when the microscope is broken and nobody seems to care?

- How about stop putting lipstick on a pig and retire the whole 737 entirely? A large percentage of the MAX faults are due to Boeing doing everything to make a plane that the original design simply cannot accommodate. At what point somebody says: "No, enough!" ?

wannacboatmovie|2 years ago

> and retire the whole 737 entirely

You're making the bold and naive assumption that a clean-sheet design would be bug free.

People here were saying the same thing a few weeks ago about the CVR with 2 hour storage. "It's the tech! Use cloud storage! Just buy more flash! Blah blah"

Well supposedly newer aircraft like the A350 and B787 have newer recorders with much more storage - that were later found to have software bugs in service writing garbage data. Imagine that.

So sometimes going with an old reliable design that is approved and rigorously tested for 25 years is the prudent decision when you have no requirement to upgrade.

With the current issues being manufacturing-related and not an engineering error, how would a new design help that? It's like saying let's scrap all the code because your ops team is incompetent and can't deploy VMs properly.

bobsomers|2 years ago

> How about stop putting lipstick on a pig and retire the whole 737 entirely?

What? The 737 NG family (along with the Airbus A320 series) have been the workhorse of short to medium haul air travel for decades now. Throwing out the 737 entirely is a nonsensical, knee-jerk reaction suffering from serious recency bias.

> A large percentage of the MAX faults are due to Boeing doing everything to make a plane that the original design simply cannot accommodate. At what point somebody says: "No, enough!" ?

And your solution to that is to throw out all the perfectly functional and flight-proven-over-decades aspects of the design and start completely fresh? If you're concerned about the process which produced the Max, what gives you any confidence that a fresh design wouldn't have 10x the issues that the Max does?

DriverDaily|2 years ago

> nobody seems to care?

Clearly people care. They are literally checking every bolt for proper torque. When they found a few undertorque bolts it becomes a national news, it gets shared so much it ended up on Hacker News, and you cared enough to comment.

diggan|2 years ago

> 737 Max is going to end up being one of the safest planes to fly in

It already has two crashes under its belt, compared to other models that never had any crashes (like the A380).

But I guess if we put the disclaimer "From today on!" then it might be accurate.

bobsomers|2 years ago

> It already has two crashes under its belt, compared to other models that never had any crashes (like the A380).

You can't come to any conclusions from simple math like that because it isn't corrected for flight hours and exposure. There are literally 10x more 737 Max's delivered so far than there are total A380s left flying, and they're constantly booked doing short to medium haul flights all day long rather than a single long-haul flight per day. And given that takeoff and landing are the riskiest phases of flight, it should also probably be corrected by flight cycles, not pure flight hours.

It's nowhere close to as simple as you make it out to be.

DriverDaily|2 years ago

"end up being" is not enough of a disclaimer for you?

bootlooped|2 years ago

If that's true why wasn't it already made the safest after the two Max 8 crashes that killed everybody on board.

ducttapecrown|2 years ago

Because they kept letting Boeing do (or not do) the inspections?

insonable|2 years ago

Maybe, but instead of redesigning and building a new jet suitable for the larger and more efficient engines allowing their competitor's A320 to be more efficient, they appear to have kludged them onto the old (and low-sitting) 737. To do this, they had to change their location on the wing, which made the aircraft more unstable, which lead to the MCAS system to mitigate this, and problems with MCAS and sensor redundancy led to the two fatal crashes. I have a hunch many of us have seen this sort of thing and consequences before.

axus|2 years ago

Not the worst analogy. Microsoft Windows did turn out pretty well after 20 years.

FerretFred|2 years ago

The Stasi would love the telemetry features that M$ Windows provides as standard!

whalesalad|2 years ago

can't tell if this is satire or not

elsonrodriguez|2 years ago

It is still an airframe that does not have the same redundancies required of new air frames.

It exists specifically to bypass those new requirements.

All else being equal, it will never be as safe as something designed to meet modern standards.

cjbgkagh|2 years ago

This is nonsense, this is a repeat of correctness by construction vs correctness by test that we see in software. Since these planes are poorly constructed, due to failure in process controls, they must now rely on a correctness by test which is more expensive and less effective. I would argue that in such complex systems no amount of testing can ever make up for failures in controls.

Relying on the constant vigilance of pilots is a non-starter due to the limits of simply being human. Which is why risk is modeled using the Swiss cheese model. Pilots have off days and cannot be relied to catch everything, especially if the issue is previously unknown.

This isn’t the first 737 Max issue so why didn’t Boeing take the opportunity then to fix everything else wrong with the plane after the MCAS issues? Especially when they had the time during the pandemic to do so. How many new final issues should we expect? 3.. 4?

I’m not saying flying is going to be drastically more dangerous, just that it’s more dangerous than it could have been.

uh_uh|2 years ago

Aren't there some fundamental issues with the Max regarding its engine placement which necessitated the MCAS system that was responsible for the two fatal crashes? If that's true, I don't think the Max can be as safe as a plane that doesn't have these issues in the first place due to its design.

FredPret|2 years ago

People said exactly this after the first two crashes.

At this point design should be scrapped. No amount of review can fix a broken concept executed by an incompetent manufacturer.

likeabbas|2 years ago

Engineering can’t always combat a poor integral structure.

eastbound|2 years ago

Our software is the safest software, because we’ve discovered a lot of bugs in it.

Historical note: ActiveX and Flash were never successfully made safe. They just stopped being a threat… by dying, a bit like the USSR never resolved communism, it just stopped doing it by dying.

philip1209|2 years ago

Yeah, it's similar to how SVB went from least safe to most safe bank (for a short period).

throwanem|2 years ago

How'd that work out for the DC-10?

josemanuel|2 years ago

Do you really believe that?

minedwiz|2 years ago

TBF, the 737 had a bad rudder flaw in the 1990s that led to fatal crashes. After an overhaul it never came back, and the 737 went on to have a great record.