[pc_edwin]

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict.

Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication.

A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and sovereignty.

Many people don't seem to realise how existential this is for Russia. Being surrounded by Nato on side and China on the other whilst rapidly declining as a nation (economy, birth rates, military etc etc) is really not good.

[chalcolithic]

>Many people don't seem to realise how existential this is for Russia.

I, being Russian, can not understand how is that an existential threat to a country that has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, has insane amount of natural resources, and enjoys a virtually exclusive access to the best demographic reservoir in the world (except for Haredim, but it's not like they're planning to move anywhere, so yeah, the best one actually).

[pc_edwin]

Over the span of three decades your nation went from being a global superpower with immense economic, political and military power to a rapid declining shell of its former self.

Your economy is more comparable to an American state like Florida than a powerful country. You're nation is a political pariah with fleeting influence even among former ussr members. You capability to exert military power outside of your own borders have been effectively disabled having being surrounded by NATO and with a heavily depleted military.

All of this combined with the natural resources and land you mentioned is exactly why its open season on Russia to be carved up by actors with higher economic, military and political power.

If I was in your shoes, I would either give up and move or do anything and everything I can to improve the odds of the terrible hand your nation has been given..

[mr_toad]

I don’t know about existential. Britain, France, Spain, Portugal, Turkey, Hungary all lost their empires without ceasing to exist.

[refurb]

Few of those empires lost territory between themselves and what they viewed as hostile powers.

For the UK, France, Spain, Portugal it was overseas empires

[ghiculescu]

Do you think their leaders at the time were fine with this?

[bdangubic]

feels like there is something different between countries you have listed and Russia, just can’t put my finger on what it is… :)

[pc_edwin]

The British empire peacefully transferred power to their descendents/cousins, this is a success story. Speaking english. Christian. Shared ancestry.

Besides, we are not talking about breaking up the empire. That already happened with the dissolution of the USSR. We are talking about the extinction of a nation.

It would be like if the UK was split into Scotland, a puppet of the EU. Wales, a quasi independant state with strong ties to Scotland. England, a former power center. Finally Ireland becomes whole.

Do you really think the brits will be cool with this, especially if lets say Russia/China was working behind the scenes to make it happen and the so called ally EU was all too happy to gain all this new power and influence...

[mindslight]

The article's analysis focuses on a rivalry between Russia and Poland. At least in my book, being stuck on a rivalry to the point of your own destruction is the exact opposite of "clearly rational" and having "a high level of sophistication".

If Poland has gained this newfound strength by shoring up its western border through cooperation and trade, and Putin is worried about Ukraine just being able to do so as well, it begs the question of why Russia could not have done the exact same thing. And well it probably could have, if not for its wealth being squandered on a kleptocracy as touched in a few sibling comments. The resource curse strikes again.

[achikin]

Putin tried to do that at the beginning of his presidency. He was talking a lot about joining NATO and even EU, but that didn’t go anywhere. Russia is much more valuable to the EU as a fossil colony.

[ChatGTP]

Many people don't seem to realize how existential this is for Russia

What was existential for Russia? If they had of just remained peaceful and sold resources to the rest of the world, nothing would've happened to them, there was nothing existential about it.

Maybe Putin is a paranoid lunatic and thinks people were out to get him, but there is no way there was some secret western plot to invade Russia or anything like this? In fact, Europe and the rest of the world was trading with them just fine. All we hear about on here was how Germany is completely dependent on Russia.

The truth is, countries side with NATO for a reason, because they have something to offer. If Russia had something better to offer, was trustworthy and Putin supported democracy, maybe less countries would be interested in partnering with the west and happy to form stronger ties with the autocracy. It doesn't mean anyone was about to invade Russia though.

Edit: Down voters, let's hear your counter.

[tsimionescu]

No one was about to invade Russia, not today. But NATO is by definition an alliance created against Russia, and it has a long history of trying to initiate regime changes in its enemies.

You have to remember that Russia is a federation, one with much deeper internal divides than the USA. The closer we are to Russia, the easier it is for us to fund, train, and arm Russia's separatist elements.

If NATO was officially present if Georgia, do you think it would ignore any pleas for help from chechen separatists trying to defend themselves from the butcher running them? Or would we actively work to try to make Chechenia an independent country, over the next 10-20 years?

And Chechenia is far from the only vulnerable place.

Note that I am not saying this would be a bad thing for the people of Chechenia. It is quite likely what a lot of them want. But if Russia were funding, arming, and training the IRA, or Texas's secessionist fringe, would the USA or UK be happy to allow this? No, empires are fundamentally built out of people who try to maintain their empire.

[yks]

It is not existential for Russia, it's just yet another barely consistent concept Russian apologists are throwing around in hope it sticks. I vividly remember how there were dozens of comments on this website defending the lunatic conspiracy theory about "NATO biolabs below Azovstal" during week 3 of the invasion, so HN is just another social media "zone" which Russians and their Western sympathizers try to "flood with shit", quoting one of their ideologues.

[pc_edwin]

It goes with out saying, I mostly disagree with Noah but I find the depth of his content so refreshing.

It is very rare to see this level of sophistication and depth from the people he shares his political believes with.

[SkeuomorphicBee]

> Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication.

Nothing rational or sophisticated about trying to build a 19th century style land empire in the 21st century. The mindless quest for a sphere of influence is madness in our modern word, something that can only come from the mind of a crazy megalomaniac who thinks of sovereignty not in regards to modern borders, but in regards to a historic empire of his dreams. He believes Ukraine (and Belorussia, and Georgia, ...) are part of Russia, so anytime one of those stops playing the part (stop being a puppet/satellite) he invades (Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 and 2022).

[doubloon]

the reason their economy, birth rates, and military go into the toilet is because of their shitty rulers stole the money and spent it on whores and cocaine instead of education and infrastructure, not because they lost territory or sovereignty or any of this shit. if putin was rational and sophisticated his country would not be flushing itself down the toilet.

russia used to be a mathematical, scientific, technological pioneer, also with major contributions to humanities, literature, and the arts. they kicked all those people out of the country for being un-macho nerds and now they have redneck oil idiots running the place and brainwashing the uneducated rural population into dying by the 100,000 alongside rapists and murderers in human wave attacks into an innocent country that never attacked them.

[mistrial9]

> now they have redneck oil idiots running the place and brainwashing the uneducated rural

that sounds like Texas politics to me

[frozenport]

Putin != Russia

It was, and has always been a war to maintain a kleptocratic autocrat.

[hollerith]

Navalny has always maintained that Crimea should be part of Russia, as did Yeltsin, so there goes your theory that the cause of the war is the idea that Putin is an especially bad leader.