The root world can spawn many simulations and simulations can be spawned within simulations. It becomes far more likely that we exist in a simulated world than in the root world.
The probability of being in any simulation is conditional on the one above, which necessarily decreases exponentially. Any simulation running an equivalent simulation will do so much slower, so you get a geometric series of degrading probabilities.
The rate of decay will be massive, imagine how long and how much resources it would take us to simulate our universe, even in a hand waved AI+lazy compute way that also spawns subconsciousnesses. The inverse of that is the sequences ratio.
So even in theory, the probability of you being in any of the simulated universes is P(we can simulate a universe) / (1-1/time to simulate) - prob we’re in the top universe.
Thinking this probability is overwhelming because of the nesting effect is false.
That's not a good argument, because we have no way of knowing what is the ration between our time and that of the universe where our simulation runs. Even if it takes hours to generate one second of our universe, we only experience our own time.
Besides, time is not absolute, and having it run slower near massive objects or when objects accelerate would be a neat trick to save on compute power needed to simulate a universe.
The only thing about the branching simulations is they are likely simplified approximations. There’s no reason it doesn’t nest and that the approximations can observe their approximations of the prior level is strictly more complex than can be observed in the simulation. That should be fundamentally impossible meaning any branch can’t know if they’re the root or the branch, only that they create a branch.
data-ottawa|2 years ago
The probability of being in any simulation is conditional on the one above, which necessarily decreases exponentially. Any simulation running an equivalent simulation will do so much slower, so you get a geometric series of degrading probabilities.
The rate of decay will be massive, imagine how long and how much resources it would take us to simulate our universe, even in a hand waved AI+lazy compute way that also spawns subconsciousnesses. The inverse of that is the sequences ratio.
So even in theory, the probability of you being in any of the simulated universes is P(we can simulate a universe) / (1-1/time to simulate) - prob we’re in the top universe.
Thinking this probability is overwhelming because of the nesting effect is false.
namaria|2 years ago
Besides, time is not absolute, and having it run slower near massive objects or when objects accelerate would be a neat trick to save on compute power needed to simulate a universe.
fnordpiglet|2 years ago