[duccinator]

Agreed, More clarification about the first part:

What I want to convey is that the growth function will be somewhat similar to y= c + ax^n (ignoring/collapsing into c the linear and higher order terms) rather than just y= ax^n.

The c here is robots produced via humans. I predict c will easily touch a million in 5 years with or without human help.

Even if the later bots can do only 50% the work of humans, we will still exponentially grow the robots until the humans become a bottleneck. And that 50% capability is also expected to grow exponentially.

Gemini 1.5 pro already beats most humans in most benchmarks, combine it with Sora which has a great visual world model, add some logical reasoning(architecture or scale), memory and embodiment(so it can experiment and test) and you pretty much have the seeds for an agi.

My optimistic/most probable prediction about the growth rate say it's

Regarding the last part:

My bad, I speed read your comment and didn't focus on the exponential calculations. An exponential growth is just x^n. Both x(multiplication rate(?)) and n(units of time) can be manipulated.

[ben_w]

We're broadly in agreement, the only part I'd disagree with here is:

> Even if the later bots can do only 50% the work of humans, we will still exponentially grow the robots until the humans become a bottleneck. And that 50% capability is also expected to grow exponentially.

I think most automation since the dawn of the industrial revolution has done 50% or more of the task it was automating, and although yes the impact there is exponential growth, humans are a very rapid bottleneck until the next thing gets automated — Amdahl's law, rather than Moore's.

[duccinator]

Whoops, deleted part of my response before submitting.

My optimistic/most probable predictions about the growth rate say it's wild. Like within 5-10 years with the multiple exponentials among different fields you can easily do away with most jobs unless there is a major bottleneck (I don't think there is, there is so much low hanging fruit). I guess that's what the singularity is all about. I don't think this will take multiple decades or centuries in any scenario other than the equivalent of ww3