[exclusiv]

> As long as the keep rates where they are or higher, we should recover.

This is not the case and is actually impossible. Impossible they will maintain them or higher. And impossible we would recover.

The US is headed towards $1T in interest payments alone annually.

$34T in national debt AND $213T in unfunded liabilities. 2/3 of the budget is non-discretionary

The longer they stay elevated the more the average interest rate on debt goes up. For the US and the world since it's the reserve currency. This pisses everyone off.

Rates will go back down to around 2% because the US AND the world cannot sustain an expensive dollar. There's 65T in eurodollar debt (US dollar denominated debt) globally. [1] I've seen higher estimates too.

"Approximately half of all cross-border loans, international debt securities, and trade invoices are denominated in U.S. dollars, while roughly 40 percent of SWIFT messages and 60 percent of global foreign exchange reserves are in dollars." [2]

We aren't going to end up back around 2% because the Fed wants to. It's because we have to. You cannot maintain the world reserve currency at these rates after everyone got drunk off the lower rates for decades. And you cannot have the debt load we have and maintain these rates or higher. There's no easy way out of a debt spiral.

Just my opinion but rates will go lower. Printing will go into hyperdrive. Inflation will rip. There will be more unrest. Personally, I'm holding inflation-hedging assets.

[1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/65-trillion-debt-bank...

[2] https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/07/the-u-...