Unlikely in what probability space? We only see one version of reality so the probabilities that we assign to any outcome are based on a prior choice of probability space. That is why the researchers' intent matters.
Both events have the same probability of happening; 1/20. The fact that the researcher intended to do something in a reality that didn't happen isn't relevabnt.
If you want to know whether a drug is more effective than placebo, the answer to that question depends on both the data collected in a study and the initial study design. There’s a reason why it’s meaningless to say “that was unlikely” after somebody says they were born on January 1, or after getting a two-factor code that is the same number six times. There’s nothing special about those particular events except for the fact that we noticed them. Since we live in a single instance of the universe where they have already happened, they have probability 1. At the same time, on any given instance they have probability 1/365ish or 1/10000. The difference between these two interpretations of the probability is the same difference as having a good experimental design vs a flawed experimental design where you repeat the experiment until you get the results you want to see.
lalaithion|2 years ago
ninthcat|2 years ago
AbrahamParangi|2 years ago