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bemusedthrow75 | 2 years ago
Monty isn't a contestant. Monty's action and outcome is part of the fixed description of the problem. He opens one of the doors and reveals a goat. Full stop.
If you think revealing one of the two goats (the other of which might or might not be behind your current selection) isn't information of value in assessing whether your chances in that scenario are improved by switching, I'd encourage you to consider why.
And now I really must leave it to someone else to help you, if they will. But I very much appreciate your politeness.
jncfhnb|2 years ago
Incorrect and I invite you to cite the line of the prompt that says otherwise. This is the critical missing piece of information that makes it the commonly understood “Monty hall problem” and not the improperly stated prompt that we actually have.
“Monty did this” != “Monty would have done this regardless of your previous choices”.
Unless this is stated, you just have an incomplete problem. If you don’t know the mechanics by which Monty decides to share information, it does not give you probabilistic info.
Probability questions frankly often require you to make judgements about the probable starting conditions based on information given so far. You frequently need to recognize that your current situation is the result of prior processes that are or are not defined.
habinero|2 years ago
In this thought experiment, MH will always open a door to a goat on purpose and always ask if you want to switch, because the entire point of the thought experiment is that people find the 2/3 odds if you switch unintuitive and baffling, leading to extremely long thread chains.
You're doing the equivalent of saying "why can't we wait and see if the cat meows" when talking about the Schrödinger's thought experiment. It can't because that's not the point of the exercise.